NFL Betting Free Picks: San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans

Added on Nov 07, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The disappointing San Diego Chargers look for their first road win of the year as they head to Houston to take on the Texans. San Diego is 0-4 away from home this season but they’re facing a Texans team that has been far from dominant at Reliant Stadium with a 2-2 record. Houston is currently third in the AFC South at 4-3, while the Chargers are third in the AFC South at 3-5.

San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans
November 7, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

We talked a couple weeks ago about the Chargers tendency to start the season slowly and finish strong. They didn’t get it done against New England that week, but took care of business against the Titans last week. We’ll repeat those numbers again–under Norv Turner the Chargers are 27-9 SU and 22-13-1 ATS from Game 6 on. Since 2008, they’re 4-8 SU/ATS in October. If that tradition is going to hold form this year this should be a spot that the Chargers get their first road victory of the year.

It’s not that we’re particularly impressed with this Chargers team. They’ve shown an amazing tendency this year to ‘beat themselves’ and have been downright horrible on special teams. Statistically, however, they’re playing solid football on both sides of the ball. They rank #1 in total defense (260 yards per game against) and #1 in total offense (426 yards per game). That’s 24 yards per game better than 2nd place Indianapolis, and they’re the only two teams in the league averaging 400+ yards per game. Philip Rivers is putting up good numbers and that’s resulted in the Chargers ranking #1 in passing offense as well. Their ability to pass the football is crucial to this handicap since the Texans are dead last in passing defense allowing 299 yards per game through the air. They’re also dead last in total defense, allowing 404 yards per game. Their scoring defense is slightly better, but not much–they’re #29 allowing 28.1 PPG.

It’s almost certain that Rivers will put up his 6th 300+ yard passing game of the season here, but Matt Schaub could find the going much tougher against the Chargers’ defense. Andre Johnson is a very good wide receiver, but he’s been playing with a high ankle sprain for much of the year and re-aggravated the injury against Indy on Monday night. He either missed or was limited at practice all week, but is expected to play. Even at 100%, he’d be facing the formidable challenge of Quinton Jammer defending him–Jammer is playing as well as any defensive back in the NFL and should be able to shut Johnson down. Up front, the Texans are dealing with injuries (particularly MLB DeMeco Ryans, out for the year) and players playing out of position (Brian Cushing, who has replaced Ryans at MLB).

The scheduling spot is also tough for Houston–they’re playing off a short week following the Monday Night game against the Colts and have an important divisional game against Jacksonville on deck. Sportswriters have spilled plenty of ink talking about the ‘disappointing’ Chargers but it’s important to keep things in perspective–they started 1-3 SU in 2007, 2-3 in 2008 and 2-4 last year. As we noted above, in each instance they came on strong as the season progressed. Not sure that Houston has the special teams players to exploit that hole in the Chargers’ game, meaning its a matchup of the #1 passing offense against the #32 passing defense and a Texans’ offense that has been erratic at best all year against the #1 statistical defense in the league.

Bet San Diego Chargers -1′ over Houston Texans
Bet San Diego/Houston Over 45′