NFL Betting Free Picks: New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

Added on Nov 11, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The NFL Sunday night prime time matchup presents a compelling AFC matchup between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams are tied for the lead in their respective divisions, so this game is crucial for both sides. The Patriots are off a lopsided loss at Cleveland in which Tom Brady didn’t play particularly well, while the Steelers beat the Cincinnati Bengals failing to cover the pointspread as -5 road favorites.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
November 14, 2010 5:20 PM Pacific

Both teams have historical pointspread records that suggest a strong performance in this situation. New England hasn’t been an underdog often during the Bill Belichick era, but when they have taken points they’ve been a very solid investment. The Patriots are 2-0 SU/ATS this season as an underdog and have taken the money in five of their last seven as underdogs. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has a stellar record as a home favorite in this price range (-3’ to -7). They’re 6-4 ATS in their last 10 spots at this price and going back even further have covered 40 of 61 in this price range. The Steelers have also done well on prime time TV, covering 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday or Sunday nights.

It’s unwise to take too much from the Patriots’ loss to Cleveland last week—among other things, it was a natural ‘flat spot’ from a motivational standpoint off of the big game against Brett Favre, Randy Moss and the Minnesota Vikings and with this matchup on deck. There is some concern, however, since the Browns’ offense won with a game plan that the Steelers could also implement using a power rushing game to set up downfield passing opportunities. New England’s secondary is arguably their biggest liability, and they allowed rookie Colt McCoy to pass for over 400 yards. Still, we expect a strong effort from New England here—even a top notch coach like Belichick has to expect a bad game or two and prior to that his team had won five straight games.

Pittsburgh has a very tough defense, but they haven’t exactly been dominant in all phases of the game. More specifically, they’ve shown a tendency to do just enough to win. Despite their decent record in this price range their overall record as a favorite is far less impressive—following the win/no cover against Cincinnati they’re 3-8-1 in their last 12 chalk appearances. They’re also off a short week having played on Monday Night Football last week and they’re just 12-16 with less than a full week between games.

Ultimately, we have to look toward the Patriots getting more than a field goal here. During the Belichick era, New England has responded very well off a loss—they’ve won and covered five straight as an underdog off a loss. The last eight head to head matchups at Pittsburgh are split evenly at 4-4 but the Pats have covered 6 of those games. That suggests a tightly contested affair where the points will likely come into play.

Bet New England Patriots +4′ over Pittsburgh Steelers