Monday Night Football Betting: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Added on Dec 27, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The NFC South title is on the line this Monday Night as the Atlanta Falcons host the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons are definitely in the drivers seat with a 2 game lead over the defending Super Bowl champions and a victory here can clinch the divisional title. If the Saints win, however, the dynamic changes measurably.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
December 27, 2010 5:35 PM Pacific

This game lost some of its significance last weekend as New Orleans lost to Baltimore which, combined with an routine Falcons win over the Seahawks at Seattle, gave Atlanta a bit of breathing room in the NFC South. It should still be a very good matchup between teams that have had one of the better rivalries in the NFL dating back many years to when both were among the bottom feeders of the league. Atlanta took a 3 point victory at New Orleans on November 26 and the Saints would clearly like to return the favor here at the Georgia Dome in front of a national TV audience.

Atlanta may be the most underrated team in the National Football League. They share the league’s best record with the New England Patriots at 12-2 and enter this contest on an 8 game winning streak. Despite that, the line on this game suggests that the Saints would be a 1 point favorite on a neutral field. The Falcons have become a monstrous team on their Georgia Dome home field. Since Mike Smith took over as head coach in 2008 the Falcons are 19-3 SU/15-7 ATS at home including 6-0 SU/4-2 ATS this year. With Matt Ryan at quarterback, the Falcons have won 15 straight games on their home field.

At the same time, it’s hard to find much fault with the Saints’ performance of late despite their loss on Sunday. Baltimore is a tough place for any team to play and particularly a team used to playing indoors. Before the setback to the Ravens, New Orleans had won 6 straight games and revived their chances of a Super Bowl repeat after a disappointing start to the season. Drew Brees has also regained his MVP form as the season has progressed and has been especially effective lately with 13 touchdown passes in his last five games.

New Orleans has dominated head to head play of late winning 7 of the last 10 meetings but the Falcons have been very competitive and have covered four of the last five meetings including the last two in Atlanta. Despite a solid 5-2 SU record away from the Superdome this season, New Orleans has struggled against the pointspread on the road with a 2-5 ATS record. In particular, they’ve not been good as a short priced road underdog—since 2008 they’re 0-4 SU/ATS as a road dog of +3 or less.

Ultimately, we can’t pass up playing the Falcons at home. A victory in this game would clinch the NFC South for Atlanta which would facilitate resting starters in their final regular season game against lowly Carolina. The Falcons are a team with a ‘chip on their shoulder’, thinking that they deserve the respect that a 12-2 record warrants. For that reason, we expect a strong effort here as Atlanta wins and covers the short price.

Bet Atlanta Falcons -2′ over New Orleans Saints