NFL Betting Picks: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Added on Dec 08, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The Green Bay Packers are most definitely an inconsistent team, but they’re still in the hunt for the NFC North Division title. They’re currently one game behind the surprising Chicago Bears but have a great opportunity to close the gap this Sunday against the Detroit Lions. Chicago faces a much tougher test at home against New England, and a Bears’ loss combined with a Packers’ victory would leave both teams with 9-4 records. Detroit has been a solid pointspread team and is definitely showing improvement under second year coach Jim Schwartz, but the reality is that they’re a 2-10 SU and mired in a five game losing streak.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
December 12, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

Detroit is a long way from being a contender, but the overall improvement in the team is reflected in their solid 8-3-1 record against the spread. We respect the fact that they turn in a strong effort week after week, but that can only do so much for a team as decimated by injuries to skill position players as the Lions. Detroit is down to their third string quarterback, Drew Stanton, who has limited NFL experience and hasn’t looked particularly sharp when he does play. On paper, Green Bay’s defense doesn’t look like much but numbers don’t lie and the Packers have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL allowing a mere 15.6 PPG.

As if an inexperienced third string quarterback playing against a good defense not a big enough problem, Detroit’s passing defense is very vulnerable to top notch quarterbacks. Things have gotten worse for the Lions as the season has progressed and they’ve allowed 34.6 PPG in their last three games. Green Bay can’t afford to take the Lions lightly—they’ve got a tough game against New England on deck and they remember full well the scare Detroit gave them at home earlier this season as the Pack survived 28-26 as -14’ point home favorites.

One thing Green Bay has done well (their early meeting against the Lions notwithstanding) is take care of business against weaker teams. Since Mike McCarthy took over as head coach the Packers are 19-7-1 ATS against teams with sub .500 records. They’ve also covered 11 of their last 16 against NFC North opponents. At this stage of the season Detroit just doesn’t have the personnel to compete here and we look for an easy Green Bay cover in a game that goes Over the total. We may look to play against Detroit again down the stretch in this NFL season–they could be overvalued based on their glossy ATS record.

Bet Green Bay Packers -6′ over Detroit Lions
Bet Green Bay/Detroit Over 46