NBA Betting Preview: Western Conference Playoffs

Added on Apr 13, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

Wednesday night brings the end of the NBA regular season with a schedule of games that are essentially irrelevant to most of the teams involved. Either they’re already in the playoffs are looking to rest starters or else they’re already eliminated and don’t care any more. For that reason we’ll look ahead to the playoffs which begin on Saturday. Once the schedule is set we’ll look at some of the individual series and game 1 matchups, but for now we’ll look at some futures plays for the Eastern and Western Conference winners as well as the eventual NBA Champion.

WESTERN CONFERENCE–TO WIN BETTING:

The general theory behind taking a position of this sort is to try and find a value position that you can either hedge or hold later in the playoffs. For that reason you want to look past favorites and try to find good teams at good prices and/or teams that will be in favorable first round matchups that will allow them to pull a potential upset and advance.

For that reason we’ll look past the two favorites–the Los Angeles Lakers (+120) and the San Antonio Spurs (+205). Both could end up winning the West though of the two we like the Lakers better than the Spurs. At these prices, however, there’s just no reason to take a position on them now.

So let’s look at the lower half of the table and see if we can find any good value. We’ll immediately throw out the New Orleans Hornets who got off to a great start this season and coasted the rest of the way. With Chris Paul already flirting with signing with Michael Jordan’s Charlotte Bobcats they don’t exactly look like a team with the potential to go deep in the playoffs. We do like three lower seeded teams who could advance past the first two rounds:

DENVER NUGGETS: The ‘public’ wrote off the Nuggets when they traded Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony to New York but that’s a big mistake. Denver has actually become a better team without Billups and Anthony. They’ve maintained their potent offense and improved on defense. Most importantly, perhaps, they’ve got better chemistry. They’ve got one of the strongest home court advantages in the league and the Denver altitude doesn’t hurt–they went 33-8 at home this year. They enter the playoffs winning 8 of 10 and have a better defense than their first round opponent (Oklahoma City).

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS: Blazers have dealt with a ton of injuries this year, but has kept competing and winning. They’re a tough matchup for Dallas–Portland has superior athleticism and is much tougher ‘in the paint’ than the Mavs. Right or wrong, Dallas has a reputation of being ‘soft’ and that’ll be put to the test against a Blazers’ team that’s not afraid to mix it up.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES: Very dangerous 8 seed for the top seeded Spurs in their first round matchup. Memphis has a strong home court and is very tough inside. They’re also very young and won’t have the concern about fatigue that San Antonio will with their veteran laden lineup. Grizz are flying under the radar but are a tough matchup for any of the teams in the top half of the bracket.

NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE TO WIN:

Bet Denver Nuggets +2400
Bet Portland Trailblazers +2500
Bet Memphis Grizzlies + 7500