NBA Betting Preview: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks

Added on Apr 11, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

The NBA regular season is winding down and with teams resting starters and/or packing it in for the year we’ll be picking our spots carefully until the playoffs begin. We do like a position in this Eastern Conference matchup between a couple of teams that’ll be watching the postseason on television. The Milwaukee Bucks will finish in 9th place in the conference while the Raptors are tied with Washington for the second worst record in the East.

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks
April 11, 2011 5:05 PM Pacific

We don’t expect to see the Milwaukee Bucks ‘phoning it in’ after being eliminated from the playoffs–their head coach Scott Skiles is a notorious ‘red ass’ and won’t allow that sort of thing. We can’t say the same thing about the Raptors who’ve essentially been ‘playing out the string’ since before the first of the year. Toronto is a horrible 6-34 SU on the road and has gone 2-8 in their last 10 games. The Raptors are also playing in the second of back to back games while the Bucks had a day off on Sunday.

The Bucks have covered 13 of their last 20 games and have dominated Atlantic Division opponents this year going 11-6 SU/15-2 ATS. The Raptors have struggled against the Central Division with a 5-12 SU/6-11 ATS record. When the Raptors lose, it’s a function of matchups and not scheduling, fatigue or other factors–that’s evident in their 2-20 SU/5-17 ATS record in spots where they’re looking for ‘revenge’ from a home court loss. Toronto has also been a horrible road underdog in this price range (+6′ to +9 points) going 0-13 SU/2-11 ATS on the season.

This is a horrible tactical matchup for Toronto–they’re a team that plays weak team defense which makes things much easier for the low scoring Bucks. At the same time, the Raptors lack a dependable ‘go to’ scoring threat and are easily frustrated by the Bucks’ tenacious defense. Toronto is also very small up front which means that Andrew Bogut can easily dominate the paint. Milwaukee is 3-0 SU/ATS against Toronto this season with an average victory margin of 10 PPG. Since 2008, Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS against the Raptors including 4-1 SU/ATS at home.

Bet Milwaukee Bucks -8 over Toronto Raptors