NBA Betting Preview: New Jersey Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers

Added on Mar 23, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

The NBA’s slogan of ‘where amazing happens’ will be put to the test on Wednesday night in a game that isn’t exactly ‘must see TV’. The Nets have improved dramatically over last season’s trainwreck, but they’re still a team playing .319 basketball. That makes them look like the Los Angeles Lakers compared to the Cleveland Cavaliers and their .188 winning percentage.

New Jersey Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers
March 23, 2011 4:05 PM Pacific

The Nets are definitely a better team this season than last, and it’s hard to argue that on balance they’re superior to the Cavs. That doesn’t mean they should be favored on the road against anyone. New Jersey is just 4-29 SU/12-21 ATS on the road and this will be their first role as a road favorite this year. They’re just 4-6 ATS when laying points overall. They’ve struggled against the Central Division (4-11 ATS) and have a woeful record against teams with losing records (9-22 ATS). The reason for this is that other bad teams view the Nets as a ‘winnable game’ while superior opponents still take them lightly.

Cleveland is the utter antithesis of a ‘public’ team and with good reason. They’re a pretty ugly excuse for a NBA team but as we’ve stressed ever since their record losing streak ended this makes them a good value play down the stretch. They’ve covered 3 of their last 4 games and 9 of their last 17. They’ve also started to show some profits in situational pointspread categories including a couple relevant to this matchup. They’ve covered 6 of their last 10 against teams with losing records. The way to beat Cleveland is through solid team defense but against teams that don’t play that way they can be competitive. They’ve covered 7 of their last 11 against opponents with bad defenses (defined as allowing 99+ PPG). They’ve also posted a 9-5 ATS record against the Atlantic Division this year. Cavs have won 8 of the last 10 meetings SU including 4 of the last 5 at home. They’ve covered two of the three head to head meetings against the Nets this year. You won’t get an argument from us that in the ‘big picture’ the Nets are the better team at this point, but that doesn’t mean that a team that’s won only 4 games on the road this year should be a favorite against anyone.

Bet Cleveland Cavaliers +3′ over New Jersey Nets