NBA Betting Picks: Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers

Added on Apr 01, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

We’re coming down to the wire in the NBA regular season and that’s why Friday night’s Eastern Conference matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers is interesting. The Pacers are currently in the 8th and final playoff spot while the Bucks are 3 games back. Indiana has been playing better than Milwaukee of late–the Pacers are 6-4 in their last 10 games while the Bucks are 4-6.

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers
April 1, 2011 4:05 PM Pacific

This is a big game for Milwaukee if they’re going to have any chance of making the NBA playoffs. The Bucks have been awful on the road this season but to make up enough ground to qualify for postseason play they’ll have to pick up a few victories in enemy arenas. This is one of the most winnable of Milwaukee’s remaining road games and they’re a good matchup against the Pacers. Indiana is a mediocre defensive team, while Milwaukee lives and dies with their defense–the Bucks rank #3 in the NBA in team defense behind only Boston and Chicago.

Milwaukee doesn’t have a lot of positive pointspread records in any situational breakdown, but they have gone 11-7 ATS against teams with good offenses (defined as scoring 99+ PPG) in the second half of the season. Additionally, this is a bad situational spot for Indiana–the Pacers are 17-14 ATS as a favorite overall but in this price range and venue they’ve been awful against the number *and* straight up. As a home favorite of 3 or less Indiana is 1-5 SU and ATS this season. Most significantly, perhaps, is the fact that the Bucks have really had Indiana’s number in recent years. The Bucks are 2-1 SU/1-1-1 ATS this year and since 2008 are 8-3 SU/6-3-2 ATS against Indiana. At Milwaukee, the Bucks are 3-2 SU/3-1-1 ATS since 2008. Milwaukee is healthier than they’ve been all year and while they may fall short of making the postseason we expect fiesty head coach Scott Skiles to have them competing the rest of the way. We’ll call for an outright win for the Bucks though we’ve got a couple of points working in our favor as a small margin for error at the underdog price.

Bet Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Indiana Pacers