NBA Betting Picks: Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls

Added on Apr 16, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

The NBA playoffs get underway on Saturday and we’ll take a look at an Eastern Conference matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers. The Bulls finished with the best record in the conference and has the look of a championship contender. The Pacers backed into the postseason and has the look of a first round loser.

Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls
April 16, 2011 10:05 AM Pacific

Ever since midseason, the Chicago Bulls have looked nearly unstoppable. They’ve got a nasty defense that finished the season ranked second in the league (just .2 points behind NBA best Boston) and have enough scorers that can take a big shot when needed. The Pacers aren’t awful defensively–they finished the regular season ranked #17 in scoring defense–but they’re not in the same league as these Bulls.

We don’t think the Bulls are going to have much trouble with Indiana. If you buy into the concept that momentum is important entering the playoffs it’s hard to be in better form than Chicago–they won 19 of their last 21 games including 9 straight to conclude the season. They weren’t quite as impressive against the spread but did post a 12-9 ATS record during that run. Chicago was particularly strong at the United Center going 35-5 SU/24-15 ATS. They also beat up on divisional rivals going 15-1 SU/10-6 ATS. The Pacers weren’t very good on the road going 13-27 SU/16-22 ATS. The Pacers did beat the Bulls once this season but it was a game that they needed a lot more than Chicago did. Since 2008 the Bulls are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS against the Pacers on their home floor.

Despite the apparent mismatch in favor of Chicago we’re not interested in laying the big number with the Bulls. Instead, we’ll look for their defense to clamp down on the Pacers and send this game Under the total. Bulls went Under in 5 of their last 6 games and 11 of 16 against the Central Division. They went Under in 25 of 40 games at home. With Chicago facing what should be a relatively easy series against overmatched Indiana its important for them to keep their defensive intensity for bigger challenges down the road. Look for this game to stay Under the total.

Bet Chicago/Indiana Under 188