NBA Betting Picks: Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns

Added on Mar 10, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

NBA betting on Thursday features a Western Conference battle between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets. The Suns are currently in 9th place in the Western Conference, leading 10th place Utah by 1/2 game and trailing 8th place Memphis for the final playoff spot by 1 game. Denver is tied for Portland for 5th place with the Blazers and Nuggets both 1/2 game ahead of 7th place New Orleans.

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
March 10, 2011 7:35 PM Pacific

The Denver Nuggets had no option but to send Carmelo Anthony packing–he was causing problems with team chemistry and generally behaving like a malcontent. No one expected that the deal would work out so well for both the Knicks and Nuggets. Anthony is a good fit in New York and the Nuggets have improved since his departure. There was some concern about Denver’s pointguard play with the loss of Chauncey Billups but the tandem of Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton haven’t missed a beat.

Since the Anthony to the Knicks deal went down the Nuggets have gone 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS and will come into this game well rested–they haven’t played since Saturday and teams seldom get that kind of break during the regular season. The Suns have played reasonably well of late, going 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS but they’ve been a bad home investment (13-18 ATS) and a bad favorite (13-16 ATS). As a home favorite in this price range (3′ to 6 points) they’re 3-6 ATS. Nuggets humiliated Phoenix in their last meeting, winning 132-98 on their home court. Curiously, the Suns are at their worst in revenge situations–they’re 6-15 SU/7-14 ATS this season. The superficial analysis may suggest that they don’t care, but here’s how I interpret that horrible performance in revenge spots–Phoenix is the type of team that lives and dies by the tactical matchup. They match up very poorly with some teams which means that even if they *want* to avenge an earlier loss the matchup is such that it just doesn’t happen. It’s like an NBA version of the old boxing adage ‘styles make fights’. In this instance, the matchup didn’t get any better for Phoenix with Anthony in New York. If anything, Denver is less likely to play at Phoenix’s preferred tempo and has improved on defense. They won’t win by 34 points, but we like Denver to win this one outright.

Bet Denver Nuggets +3′ over Phoenix Suns