NBA Betting Picks: Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat

Added on Mar 19, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

Non-conference NBA betting matchup on Saturday as the Denver Nuggets travel to South Florida to take on the Miami Heat. Miami is currently in third place in the Eastern Conference and is coming off an easy win over Atlanta on Friday night. Denver is in 5th place out West and lost at Orlando on Friday.

Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
March 19, 2011 4:35 PM Pacific

The Nuggets lost at Orlando but covered as a +5′ point road underdog last night. They’re an 8 point underdog here and just as it was last night we think they’re not getting the respect they deserved. When the Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the New York Knicks the perception was that the team was ‘throwing in the towel’. It hasn’t worked out that way and based on recent form its hard to tell which team got the best of that deal–the Nuggets have won 10 of their last 13 going 12-1 against the spread. Everyone knows what the deal with Miami is–they’ve won 4 of 5 but prior to that they went on that brutal 5 game losing streak. Those 4 wins were against 3 Western Conference teams in the middle of long road trips and with more important conference matchups on deck and a Hawks team that really doesn’t seem to care on most nights. Translated–we’re still not convinced that the Heat will make it out of the Eastern Conference, let alone be a NBA title contender.

The Heat are one of the biggest ‘public’ teams in the NBA which means that by definition you’re getting value going against them in most situations. It also helps explain why they’re 13-21 ATS at home and on a 6-10 SU/ATS run against opponents with winning records. The Heat are also 3-7 ATS as a home favorite in this price range (-6′ to -9 points). And here’s something you won’t hear in the mainstream sports media since they’re too busy salivating over the ‘Big Three’–the Nuggets have the tools to exploit a Miami weakness. Miami has struggled against teams with quick pointguards and with Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson the Nuggets have a pair of them. We’ll go out on a limb and call for the outright upset by the Nuggets but we’ve got a nice margin for error in case they fall short.

Bet Denver Nuggets +8 over Miami Heat