NBA Betting Picks: Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics

Added on Jan 25, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

The worst team in the NBA meets one of the best on Tuesday night as the Cleveland Cavaliers head to the TD BankNorth Garden to take on the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are leading the Eastern Conference with a 33-10 records, while the Cavs are in the cellar with a 8-36 record. Cleveland has not only struggled in the post LeBron era but has been devastated by injuries making a bad situation even worse.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
January 25, 2011 4:35 PM Pacific

It’s sports betting 101–the only thing that bookmakers like less than a team that wins and covers all the time is one that doesn’t. The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the worst teams I’ve seen in a lifetime of NBA basketball betting. You have to go back to the horrible Dallas Mavericks teams of the early 1990′s to find a team that not only loses straight up, but also against the pointspread almost every night. Cleveland is 8-36 SU/14-28 ATS. On the road they are 3-22 SU/9-15 ATS. Against opponents with winning records they’re 1-18 SU/6-13 ATS. They’re ranked #27 in scoring offense and #24 in scoring defense. They’re on a 17 game losing streak going 4-13 ATS.

But here’s what happens with teams like the Cavs–at some point they become a profitable pointspread investment. It happened with the bad Mavs teams of the early 1990′s and don’t be surprised if it happens to this Cleveland team as well. This is due to a confluence of several factors–you’ve got a team the public hates and to attract action the bookmaker has to keep shading the line more and more in their favor. You’ve also got an opponent that no one gets motivated to play. In this case, there’s no doubt that the Celtics could beat Cleveland by 50 if they ‘circled’ the game. But why would they focus on a game against the lowly Cavs when they embark on a four game road trip immediately after this contest starting Portland and continuing in Phoenix and Los Angeles? Doc Rivers was notorious for limiting his starters’ minutes in the regular season last year and there’s every reason to think he’d do so here with a veteran team preparing for a West Coast road trip. Finally, bad teams–especially ones with as many injuries as Cleveland–provide opportunities for reserves to get valuable playing time. And since they’re literally playing for the opportunity to have a career in the NBA, they typically play hard. The Cavs have already beaten the Celtics SU once this year, but we don’t need them to do that. We just need them to stay within this huge number and against a Celtics team that will definitely be looking ahead to their trip out west that’s not a monumental task.

Bet Cleveland Cavaliers +18 over Boston Celtics