NBA Betting Futures: To Win The Western Conference

Added on Oct 04, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

The NBA and NHL betting seasons are right around the corner and we’ve already started the background research necessary to handicap the individual games successfully. Most sportsbooks take action on preseason games in both sports, but in all of my years as a professional sports bettor I’ve never seen any type of successful way to bet them. This is a good time to take positions on the wide variety of future book wagers offered in both sports and we’ll begin our preview of these bets with the NBA’s Western Conference.

Obviously the LA Lakers are the team to beat and they’re a -125 favorite to win the Western Conference. You know the deal with the Lakers–Kobe Bryant has replaced Michael Jordan as the most lethal clutch player in the game and he’s got good talent around him. After the Lakers, however, the conference is wide open. Most books have Oklahoma City and Dallas as the second and third favorites, but should the Lakers falter they may not be the beneficiaries. You can make a viable case for most of the playoff contending teams in the conference, and we like a couple of value positions deeper in the field. Let’s start with the obvious:

LOS ANGELES LAKERS: We like the Lakers’ chances to repeat not only as Western Conference Champions but NBA Champions as well. The nucleus of the Lakers’ back-to-back title teams is back, most notably Kobe Bryant. In theory, repeating as conference or league champion isn’t easy but we’ve seen the Lakers do it. They’ve got veteran leadership, a coaching legend on the sideline and one of the best high stakes players in league history in Kobe Bryant. LeBron James may have the MVP award, but Kobe has a fistful of rings.

And LeBron’s move to Miami and the media fiasco surrounding it may have been the best thing to happen to this Laker team. The hardest thing about running off consecutive championships is keeping the motivational level high. That’s why the teams that have done it have had team leaders with an insane competitive drive. Chicago’s Michael Jordan’s desire to win was legendary, and while I’m not ready to put Kobe Bryant on that level he’s not far behind. Kobe has the heart of an assassin, ice water running in his veins, and every other metaphor you want to throw out. Think Kobe isn’t already dreaming of the opportunity to drop some daggers on LeBron James and the Heat? The fact that the Miami Heat have become the favorite to win the 2010-11 NBA Title has given this team a chip on their shoulder that they might not have otherwise had, and let’s not forget it’s going to be Phil Jackson’s last year at the helm. A lot of motivation for a team that knows how to win championships. Even at a chalk price we want a piece of the Lakers to win the West.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS: The Blazers are a very talented question mark, but a good value at +1100 to win the West. The only bad move Portland made in the off season was in the front office, where GM Kevin Pritchard was inexplicably given the ax despite putting together a ridiculously talented team and completely distancing the franchise from the ‘JailBlazers’ era. Of course Portland is owned by Paul Allen (co founder of a little outfit called ‘Microsoft’) and if a guy with that much clout wants you gone, you’re gone.

The biggest question about the team on the floor is the center position, where both Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla are both trying to recover from injuries that ended their season prematurely this year. The know-nothings in the mainstream sports media has already dismissed Oden as a ‘bust’, but that’s just because they weren’t paying attention when he was actually playing last year. Obviously his ability to stay healthy is a big concern, but Oden is already one of the most dominant defensive centers in the NBA. Some have second guessed the Blazers’ choice of Oden over Kevin Durant in the draft, but when they already had Brandon Roy there was no reason to get another shooting guard–even one with ‘can’t miss’ NBA potential.

With Oden and Pryzbilla back in the lineup the Blazers are a serious contender. Portland is loaded at every other position on the floor, though Rudy Fernandez is likely gone from Portland and honestly they really don’t need him. Portland picked up a couple of nice young guards in the NBA draft (Memphis’ Elliot Williams and Nevada’s Armon Johnson who IMO was one of the real steals of the draft), they’ve got a couple of versatile pointguards in Nicolas Batum and Andre Miller that could play the position and ultimately it’s probably easier to find a competent backup shooting guard than any other position on the floor. Pritchard’s late season pickup of Marcus Camby was genius and gives the Blazers even more frontline defense as well as one of the class locker room guys in the league. If Oden stays healthy the combination of him and Camby will give the Blazers one of the nastiest interior defenses in the league.

With or without Oden, you’ve got a ridiculously talented team with a lot of young players that are only going to get better. With Oden you’ve got a team without any real weakness, formidable on defense and potent on offense. At the price, they’re worth a shot.

UTAH JAZZ: The ‘squares’ saw Carlos Boozer sign with Chicago and figured that Utah regressed in the off season. In reality, Boozer’s loss was ‘addition by subtraction’. Boozer had been a constant headache for the team and fanbase his entire time in Salt Lake City. When he’s motivated, healthy and wants to play, he’s a monster but he’s also capable of sitting out weeks with minor injuries that other players would fight through and constantly whining about everything. With the emergence of workhorse Paul Milsap and the signing of Al Jefferson the Jazz are loaded at power forward which, of course, is an essential position in Jerry Sloan’s ‘pick and roll’. Neither Milsap or Jefferson have Boozer’s raw talent, but both come to play every night and work their ass off. Both men can score if necessary, both can rebound and both play solid interior defense. Most significantly, both are tough as nails and a perfect fit in a Sloan coached team.

Utah also has one of the best pointguard’s in the league in Deron Williams, the versatile (if somewhat brittle) Andrei Kirilenko, the highly underrated C.J. Miles at shooting guard and good backcourt depth with Raja Bell and Ronnie Price. For a playoff team, Utah got a steal in the draft when they picked Butler shooting guard Gordon Heyward at #9. Heyward is a freak–a 6’9″ shooting guard whom ESPN’s Pat Forte called “The guy who learned how to play like a guard but now has the size of a power forward.” The Jazz are huge on Heyward’s potential, and I concur. As it has been seemingly forever, Utah’s biggest liability is the center position. Mehmut Okur is the starting center but he’s trying to come back from injury and is currently at 70% or so. He’s not really a prototypical center either offensively or defensively. On the offensive end that’s not a huge deal in the Jazz offense which has never emphasized the position but on the defensive end it would sure be helpful to have a big body like Greg Ostertag or, even better, a defensive monster like the legendary Mark Eaton. Realistically, however, there’s not a lot of dominant centers in the league right now and especially out West. There’s a lot to like about this Jazz team and with good depth and versatility to go with the superb coaching of Jerry Sloan they could cause matchup fits for opponents all year.

So to summarize–we’ll take a big position on the Lakers to repeat as Western Conference champs and underdog positions on the Jazz and Blazers:

Bet 5 units on Los Angeles Lakers to win Western Conference Championship at -125
Bet 1 unit on Portland Trailblazers to win Western Conference Championship at +1100
Bet 1 unit on Utah Jazz to win Western Conference Championship at +1400