NBA Betting Free Picks: Charlotte @ Phoenix
Added on Jan 26, 2010 by Jack Thurman in
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Short card of NBA sports betting action today with five games on the board at sportsbooks, but we’ll head out West for a game between the Charlotte Bobcats and Phoenix Suns. Suns blew a 17 point 2nd half lead against the Utah Jazz last night and ended up losing 124-115. Bobcats also off a loss, in their case at Denver last night. Two teams in the second of back to back scheduling spots meet in Phoenix:
Charlotte Bobcats at Phoenix Suns
January 26, 6:05 PM Pacific
Suns should be in a foul mood after that collapse in Salt Lake City last night. They build a big lead with their three point shooting when the shots were falling, but kept jacking them up when they stopped falling. Jazz outscored Phoenix 33-19 in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback. Bobcats lost by 11 at Denver as+5′ road underdogs and that game helps explain what we’re doing here.
As we’ve discussed before, Charlotte is like a lot of young teams that are starting to turn the corner and become a winning franchise. They start by winning at home and struggling on the road, and that’s exactly what Charlotte has done. They’ve got an excellent 18-5 home mark that ranks among the best in the conference. Problem is that they’re 3-17 on the road–in the East, only the dismal New Jersey Nets have a worse road record. The Bobcats have been competitive on the road as evidenced by a 11-9 ATS mark, but they’re not winning games on the road.
Based on the prices of last night’s game at Denver and tonight’s game in Phoenix, it seems that despite their road struggles that Charlotte is somehow being overvalued in the role as a visitor in these games. The Suns haven’t done well on the road lately but their YTD mark is much better than Charlotte, and they were a +7 underdog in Salt Lake City last night. Throw in the qualitative superiority of the Western Conference over the East this year, and an angry group of Suns stinging from last night’s blown lead in Salt Lake and we like Phoenix to win and cover. Suns are 3-1 this season as a home favorite in this price range (-3′ to -6) and have won the last two meetings at home against the Bobcats with a 1-0-1 ATS mark.
Bet Phoenix -5′ over Charlotte
