NBA Basketball Preview: Orlando Magic at Miami Heat

Added on Mar 03, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

The highlight of Thursday’s short card of NBA betting action will be a Florida state rivalry game between Eastern Conference contenders Miami and Orlando. The Magic and Heat both enter this contest having won 7 of their last 10 games, meaning Orlando has been unable to cut into the Heat’s lead in the Southeast Division. This game will be part of the national TNT television doubleheader in the United States.

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat
March 3, 2011 5:05 PM Pacific

In theory, we get the idea of taking an Orlando team in good form in a revenge spot. We just don’t think we’re getting enough points and particularly after an early line move on the Magic pushing the line down from the +6′ opener to the current +5 price. We might have more of an interest in the Magic were the Heat not coming off an embarrassing home court loss to the New York Knicks in their last game. Orlando hasn’t been a particularly good road investment this year (11-16 ATS away from home) and have been a horrible underdog–Magic are 1-6 SU/1-5-1 ATS as an underdog this season. They’re also 0-4 SU/ATS as a dog in this price range (+3′ to +6).

Miami is a breakeven pointspread proposition in most categories, but they’ve been a strong play when coming off 3 or more days rest–in that spot the Heat are 3-1 SU/ATS and they haven’t played since the loss to the Knicks on Sunday night. Orlando is coming off a game against New York on Tuesday which they won, making them even more of a target for a proud Heat team. Miami currently holds a 2-1 edge in the season series and will add recently acquired Mike Bibby to the lineup here. Orlando will get some players back as well–Gilbert Arenas and Jameer Nelson are both upgraded to ‘probable’ for tonight’s contest. Both teams have a tough stretch of games ahead but laying what is a reasonable amount of points we like the Heat coming off a loss on national TV to get another win over their Florida neighbors. Celtics now lead the Heat by 1.5 games for the Eastern Conference title, so Miami can’t afford to lose any more ground.

Bet Miami Heat -5 over Orlando Magic