NBA Basketball Preview: Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons

Added on Mar 23, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

The Miami Heat head to Motown for what has to be a somewhat uninspiring game against the Detroit Pistons. The Heat are stuck in third place in the Eastern Conference, 3 games behind first place Chicago and 2 1/2 games behind second place Boston. The Pistons are well off the pace for a playoff spot, but have been a solid pointspread play for most of the year.

Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons
March 23, 2011 4:35 PM Pacific

Tough scheduling spot for the Heat playing a ‘one off’ road game against a lackluster team before returning home for a matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday. Public are scrambling back on the Miami bandwagon due to a couple of high profile wins over Miami and Los Angeles, but looking at the big picture it doesn’t seem that much has changed for the Heat. They’re 5-5 SU in their last 10 games though they have won 5 of their last 6. They’re just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games. By now, it’s pretty apparent that Miami gets ‘up’ to play big name opponents and is fully capable of ‘phoning it in’ against the bottom feeders of the league. Heat are just 4-8 in their last 12 spots as favorites.

Detroit has cooled significantly since the early part of the season when they were one of the best investments in the league, but they’re still capable of staying inside a big number. Pistons are 38-32 ATS on the year and 31-26 ATS as an underdog. They’re also 19-16 ATS at home and will enter this game having last played on Sunday–they’re 6-4 ATS with 3+ days rest. Detroit lost and failed to cover in Atlanta on Sunday, but they were in the game throughout before the Hawks put on a run at the end to cover the number. Heat do have a better ATS record on the road than at home, but despite going 29-3 SU against opponents with losing record they’re just 16-16 ATS. That’s a sign of a couple of things–a tendency to ‘play down’ to the level of opponents and their status as a ‘public’ team that is frequently dealt overpriced lines. Both work in our favor here–we look for the Pistons to at least hang around in this game and the outright upset wouldn’t surprise us.

Bet Detroit Pistons +8′ over Miami Heat