MLB Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Added on Apr 06, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Daytime action in the National League West on Wednesday as the Los Angeles Dodgers head to the ‘Mile High City’ to take on the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Both teams have earned winning records in the early going, with Colorado at 2-1 and Los Angeles at 3-2.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Billingsley) at Colorado Rockies (Hammel)
April 6, 2011 12:10 PM Pacific

Recreational baseball bettors–and for that matter recreational bettors in any sport–have selective memories. On one hand, they’ll remember that a team has been historically good (or bad) and bet based on this ‘past performance’ instead of focusing on the here and now. On the other hand, they often forget very simple handicapping tendencies that have proven profitable over time. The latter phenomenon appears to be at play as the Rockies are a short priced chalk over the Dodgers.

The Dodgers did produce a solid profit in head to head play in 2010 going 11-7 +640 but that fact doesn’t negate a couple of important ‘macro’ trends that are more significant in our view. The Rockies are always a very good home team and 2010 was no exception as they went 52-29 at Coors Field for +8.15 units of profit. The Dodgers posted a losing record away from Chavez Ravine going 35-46 for a -9.05 unit loss. Not that they were anything special at home finishing up in 4th place in the NL West with a 80-82 record.

The Dodgers will go with Chad Billingsley here who is a good, though not great, starter. Colorado will counter with Jason Hammel who is a prototypical bottom of the rotation pitcher valued for his ability to ‘burn innings’. This notwithstanding, Hammel did post a solid 7-2 record in his starts at Coors Field last season. In our view, this line just doesn’t reflect the overall mediocre play of the Dodgers in 2010 or their woeful road record. Additionally, it doesn’t reflect the Rockies tradition of strong home field play. It may be based too much on Los Angeles’ edge in the season series in 2010 which in our observations was more coincidental than any sort of stylistic advantage. We’ll lay the small price with one of the better home teams in baseball. The Denver altitude early in the season won’t help the Dodgers either.

Bet Colorado Rockies (Hammel) -115 over Los Angeles Dodgers (Billingsley)