MLB Preview: Houston Astros at New York Mets

Added on Apr 19, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

It’ll be a battle of National League basement dwellers on Tuesday as the Houston Astros head to Shea Stadium to take on the New York Mets. Houston is 5-11 on the season and in last place in the NL Central while the Mets are 5-11 and in last place in the NL East. This is the first of a three game set between these teams.

Houston Astros (Rodriguez) at New York Mets (Niese)
April 19, 2011 4:10 Pacific

At first glance it doesn’t look like there’s much we can use in a matchup of ‘bad vs. bad’. Houston has been awful on the road with a 1-5 record while the Mets have been equally bad at home going 1-6. We expect New York’s home record to improve at least somewhat–4 of their first 7 home games came against hard hitting Colorado. We’re not sure about Houston’s prospects for a decidedly better record on the road.

Neither of tonight’s starters have been in top form this season, but Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez has been especially dreadful. Rodriguez is 0-2 with Houston losing all three of his 2011 starts. He’s got a bloated 7.31 ERA overall and a brutal 15.75 ERA on the road (albeit based on one bad start). Jon Niese pitched well in his first start of the year but has lost his next two outings and checks in with a 6.88 ERA.

Once again, we think the Mets can handle this class on their home field and think they actually represent a decent value at the price. They’ve had little trouble with Houston in recent years going 9-4 since 2009 including a 5-1 record at Shea Stadium (or CitiField as its ‘officially’ called now). This is also a situation in which the Mets produced decent profits in 2010–they were 33-21 in night games on their home field for just over 10 units of profit. That was one of the few profitable situations for the Mets last season and gives us even more justification for a play on them here. Ultimately, we’ve got a bad road team facing a home side that needs some wins and has handled them with relative ease in recent seasons. The Mets’ prowess at night on their home field is just icing on the cake.

Bet New York Mets (Niese) -125 over Houston Astros (Rodriguez)