MLB Betting: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

Added on Jul 13, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The long national nightmare is finally over and Major League Baseball action will resume today. In our first post All Star Break analysis we’ll take a look at a National League East matchup between the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals. The Nats were the surprise division leader at the break while the Marlins are trying to pull themselves back into contention after a brutal month of June.

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
July 13, 2012 4:10 PM Pacific

The Miami Marlins were playing reasonably well heading into the All Star Break, winning six of their last 10 games. That, combined with Philadelphia’s struggles, have given them a decent cushion between themselves and the NL East basement. In fact, the Marlins beat the Phillies in three of their most recent victories which further undercuts any notion that they might have ‘turned the corner’. Their YTD profit and loss figures are far from impressive–they’re -9.6 units overall and have lost -7 units at home due to a 22-22 record in their splashy new ballpark.

Washington, on the other hand, has been one of the most profitable teams in baseball throughout the season. The Nationals’ pitching has been excellent all season long but now the team’s bats are holding up their end of the bargain as well. Washington ace Steven Strasburg gets most of the publicity but the starting rotation has been excellent top to bottom, including today’s starter Jordan Zimmermann (more about him in a moment). Part of the reason for the Nationals’ ascent to the top of the division has been better play on the road–last season they were a solid home team and a substandard road team. This season they’re 25-17 away from home good for +6.8 units of profit–part of an overall profit of +9.7 units.

The Marlins will start their ace Josh Johnson who has been pitching reasonably well after a shabby start to the season. At home he’s got a 3.23 ERA and Miami has won six of his ten starts. Washington’s Jordan Zimmermann has been excellent all season long and has been in excellent form of late–Zimmermann has a 2.61 ERA overall, a 2.38 ERA on the road and a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts.

Miami hasn’t had much of a home field advantage this year and we can’t pass up a talent like Jordan Zimmermann as an underdog. Washington’s prices may have caught up to them at home and at the top of the rotation but they offer value here.

Bet Washington Nationals (Zimmermann) +115 over Miami Marlins (Johnson)