MLB Betting Previews: Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins

Added on Sep 13, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

More Major League Baseball betting on tap for Tuesday and we’ll look at a key NL East matchup as the Philadelphia Phillies head south to take on the Florida Marlins. Philadelphia has a 1 game lead over Atlanta atop the division with both the Phillies and Braves winning on Monday. Fl0rida is in their place and hasn’t had a bad season, though they’ve never really been in the competitive mix for the NL East crown.

Philadelphia Phillies (Hammels) at Florida Marlins ( Mendez)
September 14, 2010–4:10 PM Pacific

With Philadelphia in a heated battle with Atlanta for the division championship it sets up a nice value opportunity for us to play on the home team. Adalberto Mendez gets the start for the Marlins–he made his MLB debut against the Phillies on the road and shut them down. He allowed 1 hit and 0 earned runs in 6 innings of work, striking out 6 in the process. Mendes may be a rookie by MLB standards, but he’s worked hard to get to this point–he’s been in pro ball for 9 years and is 28 years old. The Phillies counter with Cole Hammels who has also been exceptional in his recent starts. In fact, in his last three starts he’s not allowed an earned run. For the year, he’s got a 3.06 ERA with a 3.56 mark on the road. Philadelphia has won 8 of his 14 away starts.

The most salient situational statistic, however, could be Florida’s year long mastery of left handed pitching. The Marlins are 30-13 +17.4 units against southpaws in 2010 hitting .271 and averaging 5 runs per game. His most recent start against the Marlins notwithstanding, Hammels has struggled against Florida throughout his career. His ERA of 3.92 is good enough, but his team has lost 10 of his 14 starts against the Marlins. Philadelphia has dominated the season series against Florida (11-5 overall, 6-1 on the r0ad) but with the Marlins hitting lefthanded pitching so well this year we’ll take a shot with them at a nice underdog price.

Bet Florida Marlins (Mendez) +140 over Philadelphia Phillies (Hammels)