MLB Betting Preview: San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs

Added on Sep 21, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Some teams ‘get hot’ at the right time of the year. The Philadelphia Phillies are a perfect example of that–they’ve been on fire since July and that’s allowed them to run down and pass the Atlanta Braves atop the NL East. Other teams ‘get hot’ at the wrong time. In that corner, we have the Chicago Cubs who have long ago played themselves out of playoff contention but have gone on a tear in September. They’ll try to maintain that momentum at home on Tuesday against a San Francisco Giants team in a heated battle for the NL West title.

San Francisco Giants (Cain) at Chicago Cubs (Zambrano)
September 21, 2010 5:05 PM Pacific

Much respect to the Cubs showing some competitive fire down the stretch, but let’s keep their recent run in perspective–they’ve won 6 straight and 8 of 9 on the road against teams that have underachieved all year including the money burning St. Louis Cardinals. They now return home which has been their worst setting this year from a betting standpoint–they’ve lost -20.5 units at Wrigley Field this year and as we always point out when we talk about the Cubs that’s a longterm trend based on the public’s tendency to overvalue Chicago at home. Since 1997, Cubs are 593-546 at home which doesn’t sound bad until you take a look at the P/L from that record–they’ve lost -137.6 units in this timeframe at Wrigley Field! Overall, they’ve cost bettors -211 units since 1997.

Their recent success gives us a nice setup for this game, and we actually have the Giants as a small road favorite. San Francisco has posted profits in most situations this year and have played well down the stretch posting a record of 11-6 (+4.8 units) in September. With both pitchers in good form, we’ll back the team that has earned money consistently this year and is playing for a divisional title.

Bet San Francisco (Cain) +110 over Chicago Cubs (Zambrano)