MLB Betting Preview: Oakland A’s at Minnesota Twins

Added on Sep 17, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Plenty of football on deck for this weekend, but we’ll keep an eye on baseball down the stretch for any strong value positions. We think we’ve found one in Friday night action between the Minnesota Twins and Oakland A’s. Minnesota may have effectively clinched the division with a road sweep of the Chicago White Sox and they’ve been baseball’s hottest team in the month of September but they don’t seem to be getting the respect they deserve. Oakland is a fundamentally decent team, but they’re 10 games back of Texas in the AL West.

Oakland A’s (Anderson) at Minnesota Twins (Blackburn)
September 17, 2010–5:10 PM Pacific

Does anyone realize how good the Minnesota Twins are? They’re neck and neck with the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays for best record in baseball, and have been the hottest team in the MLB during September going 12-2 +9.8 units. They’re money in the bank at home, with a 48-23 +14.6 unit record and even having a winning road record. For some reason, however, they’re not getting their props. That’s the only way to explain why they’re only a -120 favorite here.

We like Oakland and have used them quite a bit at home. That’s because they’re very good at home, with a 44-30 record but on the road they’re just 28-43 -12.2 units. Brett Anderson gets the start for the A’s here and he’s a very talented lefthander that could be a star in a few years. He’s got a 2.94 ERA overall but only a 3.44 ERA on the road. The A’s have also lost 5 of his 7 road starts this season. He’s pitched very well in his last three starts, but we don’t expect him to give Minnesota too much trouble–the Twins are 31-20 +9.7 units against lefthanders in 2010.

Minnesota will counter with Nick Blackburn and while his ERA isn’t as good as Anderson’s (5.51 overall/3.99 at home) he’s done something more important–the Twins have won 8 of his 10 home starts. He’s been in exceptional form lately, allowing only 2 runs in his last three outings. Ultimately, its a matchup between a strong home team against a weak road team. Minnesota has dominated head to head play this season, winning 5 of the 6 meetings including all three at home.

Bet Minnesota Twins (Blackburn) -120 over Oakland A’s (Anderson)