MLB Betting Preview: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on Sep 24, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The red hot Philadelphia Phillies have all but put the Atlanta Braves away in the race for the National League East title and can extend their lead this weekend in a three game series against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets have been just under .500 for most of the season and are well off the pace in the division.

New York Mets (Dickey) at Philadelphia Phillies (Blanton)
September 24, 2010 4:05 PM Pacific

Seriously, is there any way to make a case against betting on the Philadelphia Phillies right now? They enter tonight’s game having won 10 straight and have a record of 18-3 +13.9 units in the month of September. They’re 51-27 at home and 40-24 +9.8 units against NL East opponents. You can debate the importance of carrying ‘momentum’ into the postseason but its one of those things that teams would rather have than not. For that reason, its hard to see the Phillies letting up as their lead over Atlanta grows.

Joe Blanton doesn’t have the best numbers on the Phillies staff with a YTD ERA of 5.04 and a home ERA of 4.40. But he’s great at the most important metric for his team and those of us who bet on baseball–the Phillies have won 10 of his 14 home starts for +4.4 units of profit. The Mets counter with R.A. Dickey who has a better ERA overall (2.92) and on the road (3.62) but the light hitting Mets have only won 6 of his 14 starts away from home. He’s pitched well lately, but with the way the Phillies have been playing lately–and the way they’ve pummeled right handed pitching all year long (67-41 +15 units) that doesn’t concern us much. Mets are only averaging 3.9 runs per game on the road and that won’t get it done against the hottest team in baseball.

Bet Philadelphia (Blanton) -145 over NY Mets (Dickey)