MLB Betting Preview: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

Added on Sep 02, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Although the major focus of the sports betting world will be on football tonight, there’s still some good baseball opportunities on the board as well. We’ll take a look at a National League East matchup between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. The Braves have kept on rolling into September, and currently hold a 3 game lead over the second place Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets, meanwhile, are looking more and more disinterested as they play out the string in a disappointing 2010 campaign.

New York Mets (Santana) at Atlanta Braves (Hudson)
September 2, 2010—4:10 PM Pacific

The conventional wisdom this year is that the Atlanta Braves are a better bet against right handed pitching than left handers. They have lost money against southpaws this year (24-23 -5.4 units) but that’s likely of no consolation to the two Mets’ lefties that have faced Atlanta so far in this series. The Braves have won three straight in this four game set, beating left handers Pat Misch and Jon Niese in the process. They didn’t only beat them, they hit them hard—Misch allowed 5 ER and Niese 8 ER, with Atlanta scoring a total of 18 runs in those two games. They’ll now face a third Mets lefthander today as Johan Santana takes the hill.

Santana is a solid pitcher with decent numbers—he’s got a 3.02 ERA overall and a 2.83 ERA on the road. That hasn’t translated into victories for the Mets—the team has lost 15 of his 28 YTD starts (-6.8 units) and 10 of 15 road assignments (-6.8 units). The problem is that the Mets have such a pitiful offense that Santana can’t even count on minimal run support. He’s allowed a respectable 10 earned runs in his last three starts, but the Mets have scored only 5 runs in support of Santana. That math simply doesn’t work. The fact that these three starts—all New York losses—came against weak hitting opponents (Houston twice, Pittsburgh) doesn’t bode well in this matchup against a far more talented Atlanta team.

Atlanta has won five straight and six of their last 10, and have been a terror at home all season. Braves are 50-19 +20.5 units at Turner Field, and have mopped up the floor with sub .500 teams—they’re 36-19 +8.6 units against teams with losing records. As a home favorite in this price range (-150 to -175) they’re a solid 22-7 for +10.7 units of profit. Tim Hudson has been solid all season (2.24 ERA) and has been money in the bank at home with a 1.83 ERA, and the Braves have won 11 of his 14 outings at Turner Field.

Mets have lost 7 of 10 and with Atlanta still trying to open up some breathing room in the divisional race it’s hard to like their chances here. Braves have owned the Mets at Turner Field with a 6-2 +3.1 unit record this season and a 20-6 +13.7 unit mark over the last three seasons.

Bet Atlanta (Hudson) -155 over New York Mets (Santana)