MLB Betting Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

Added on Sep 14, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

With week 1 of the NFL in the books, we’ll turn our attention to the divisional title race in the NL West for a strong baseball betting opportunity for Tuesday. The San Francisco Giants have cut the San Diego Padres’ once insurmountable lead to 1/2 game and they can take over first place tonight with a win over the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers are mired in 4th place in the division 10.5 games back.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw) at San Francisco Giants (Zito)
September 14, 2010 7:15 PM Pacific

The Los Angeles Dodgers have underachieved all year long, yet they still remain overvalued by linesmakers in most situations. This is a good example of that, as despite YTD losses of -11.1 units overall and on the road they’re a ‘pick’ or even a small favorite as they take on the Giants at AT&T Park. Clayton Kershaw gets the start tonight for the Dodgers and his consistently excellent ERA is the primary reason that LA is priced as they are. Kershaw has a 2.99 ERA overall, 2.84 on the road. Barry Zito’s recent ERA looks pretty bad (8.56) but that’s almost entirely due to a disastrous start against Arizona in late August where he allowed 7 ER in just over 3 innings of work. At home this season, Zito has a solid 3.34 ERA and more importantly the Giants have won 9 of his 14 starts.

The big situational component of this game is the Dodgers horrible 2010 performance against left handed pitching. LA is 20-23 -9.9 units against southpaws, averaging a half run per game less than their overall RPG. Recent form also favors the Giants–the Dodgers have lost 9 of their last 12 games, while San Francisco has won 9 of their last 12. So often in sports betting you’re required to pay a premium to back a team in a position to earn a playoff spot, but we’ve got a situation where they opposite is true. The Giants have a lot more to play for at this stage of the season, and with the Dodgers weak play against LHP this season we look for Zito to have a strong game tonight. We’ll back San Francisco as a very reasonably priced choice at home.

Bet San Francisco (Zito) -110 over Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw)