MLB Betting Preview: Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres

Added on Apr 12, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Back to Southern California on Tuesday night as the Cincinnati Reds visit the San Diego Padres in the second of a three game set. The Reds took the opening game of the series last night to improve to 7-3 while the Padres dropped below the .500 mark at 4-5 on the year.

Cincinnati Reds (Lecure) at San Diego Padres (Richard)
April 12, 2011 7:05 PM Pacific

At the risk of oversimplifying the process of handicapping baseball there’s much to be said for finding something that works and repeating it as long as it keeps working and you’re getting a good price. That’s what we’ll be doing here–we cashed a ticket on Cincinnati on Monday night and we’ll come right back with the Reds in game two of the series. It’s obvious that Cincy will be one of the class teams in the National League this season while the jury is still out on the Padres.

As we noted on Monday, it’s important to look beyond the Padres’ success against the Reds in recent years and focus on the ‘big picture’ when handicapping these matchups. In theory, we’d rather back the Reds against RHP on the road but we’re not going to shy away from using them against southpaws until they give us a reason to do so. Cincy is 2-1 this year against LHP and has been profitable against lefties consistently over the past few years. The Padres, on the other hand, lost -7 units against RHP at home in 2010 and are just 3-3 so far in 2011. They’re also 0-3 in night games so far this season and that’s something we’re going to keep an eye on. Baseball is as ‘streaky’ a sport as any and the Padres have now lost 5 of their last 7 games. Despite the disparate performances of these teams YTD the Reds are road underdogs in this game. We just can’t make a compelling case for laying the chalk with a slumping San Diego team and can come up with a number of reasons to take plus money with a Cincinnati team that looks every bit as impressive as their 2010 squad.

Bet Cincinnati Reds (Lecure) +108 over San Diego Padres (Richard)