MLB Betting Preview: Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies

Added on Sep 08, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

More baseball betting action on Wednesday night in the National League as the Cincinnati Reds continue a series with the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in Denver. Cincy is in good shape at the moment, still holding a 6 game advantage over the swooning St. Louis Cardinals who lost last night and have dropped 7 of their last 10 games. Colorado is fighting back into playoff contention–combined with the San Diego Padres recent losing streak they’re now just 4.5 games behind the division leaders.

Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo) at Colorado Rockies (Cook)
September 8, 2010–5:40 PM Pacific

The best baseball betting positions are those in which you can play one team in every game of a series. We’ve done that here, and cashed a winner last night with the Rockies over the Reds. We really don’t see a reason to change our strategy today. The pitching matchup is different, but the underlying dynamic is still the same–Cincy is on ‘cruise control’ with no real competition giving them an immediate threat for the NL Central lead. Colorado, on the other hand, is trying to play themselves into the playoff picture. As we noted yesterday, the Rockies struggle away from Denver (29-42) but they’re a very good home team with a 46-23 +12 unit record. Colorado has been at their best against good teams this season–they’ve got a 47-32 +14.5 unit mark against teams with winning records.

Cincinnati has been one of our favorite teams to play on this season, and like Johnny Cueto last night Bronson Arroyo has been one of our favorite pitching investments. His ERA isn’t overwhelmingly good, but the Reds just win when he takes the mound. They’ve won 17 of his 28 starts overall and 11 of 15 on the road. Colorado’s Aaron Cook hasn’t looked very sharp lately, but we’re at least getting a value price with him on the hill. In his Coors’ Field starts, the Rockies have won 6 of 10.

We’ll conclude with the same handicap we gave yesterday–a lot of this game could hinge on the standings. Cincinnati can afford to pace themselves at this point, with a decent lead over a St. Louis team that keeps shooting itself in the foot and a 14 game lead over third place Houston. Colorado, meanwhile, is in a wide open divisional race and is one of three teams (along with San Diego and San Francisco) with a realistic chance of taking the title. Colorado has dominated head to head play between the two sides in recent years–Rockies have won 15 of 18 head to head in the last three years (+12.4 units) including 8 of 9 (+6.8 units) at home. Reds have earned the luxury of coasting for a bit, while Colorado is in a fight for their playoff lives.

Bet Colorado Rockies (Cook) -120 over Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo)