MLB Betting Preview: Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates

Added on Sep 06, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting continues on Tuesday, and we’ll take a look at a National League game between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates. This is an important series for the Braves, with the Philadelphia Phillies breathing down their necks. Atlanta did get some help from Florida on Monday, as the Marlins beat the Phillies in the first game of a double header. Atlanta squandered the opportunity to pad their lead, however, as they lost to the Pirates. Pittsburgh is one of the more inept teams in baseball, but they’ve actually made a profit in certain situations.

Atlanta Braves (Hudson) at Pittsburgh Pirates (McDonald)
September 7, 2010–4:05 PM Pacific

We cashed a +180 winner on Pittsburgh yesterday, and while this matchup isn’t quite as favorable with the Pirates starting a right hander no reason not to take a shot at the price. The Braves just look worn out, like the need a week off to rest and recuperate. Obviously they’re not going to get it at this stage of the season, and they may be feeling the pressure with the Philadelphia Phillies closing in on their divisional lead. We’ve got the same home/away dynamics at work in this game. The Pirates are the worst team (record wise) in baseball but they’ve got a 32-38 home record and have actually turned a profit at home (+4.8 units). The Braves are a dominant team at home, but on the road not so much– Atlanta has the best home record in baseball at 49-19, but away from Turner Field they’re just 30-40 -13.7 units.

The head to head pitching matchup obviously favors the Braves, with veteran Tim Hudson facing youngster James McDonald. Hudson has been great at home this year where Atlanta has won 11 of his 15 starts, but he’s not been anything special on the road. His ERA is decent at 2.71, but the Braves have lost 7 of his 13 away assignments. McDonald is a serviceable 3.71 ERA at home, and Pittsburgh has gone 2-2 in his PNC Park outings for a small profit. Hudson hasn’t pitched up to form in his last three games, with a 3.60 ERA and two Braves losses.

Obviously when you’re dealing with such a huge difference in class you’re making a ‘speculative’ play, but with a +180 win on Monday we’re essentially ‘playing with house money’ in the rest of the series. Even if Pittsburgh loses the next two games, we’re not really hurt financially and even a split will give us a nice windfall profit. The Braves may or may not recover from this late season swoon, but at this point you just can’t make a case for laying such a huge price on a team that has lost money on the road all season long. We should get another good price on the home team in Wednesday’s season finale, and we’ll back Pittsburgh in both of the remaining games. A split gives us a nice profit, and a pair of Pittsburgh wins gives us a huge payday.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (McDonald) +210 over Atlanta Braves (Hudson)