MLB Betting Picks: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Added on May 29, 2012 by Jack Thurman in
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East meets West in the National League on Monday as the Chicago Cubs welcome the San Diego Padres to Wrigley Field. The Cubs are in last place in the NL Central, the Padres are in last place in the NL West and neither team has much hope of improving on their status.
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
May 29, 2012 11:20 AM Pacific
Hope springs eternal in Chicago, but their hopes have been moderated to the point where they’re happy to just win a few games. They got one win yesterday against the Padres to break a long winning streak while the Padres lost for the 7th time in 8 games. So is this a ‘buy sign’ for the Cubs? Are they about to go on a winning streak?
Not likely. Yesterday’s victory was due as much to the 20 MPH winds blowing out at Wrigley Field. A bigger concern is the fact that Chicago allowed the weak hitting Padres to score 7 runs. San Diego had only scored more than 3 runs in a game just once in their last 11 contests.
San Diego is a horrible team in their own right–they’ve won only five games on the road and have lost -10.1 units away from home. The Cubs, on the other hand, have been a money loser for over a decade now. No matter how you slice up the Cubs records there’s a big deficit. They’ve lost -13.5 units this year and check out this stat–if you’d bet against the Chicago Cubs in every game since 1997 you’d have turned a profit of +248.2 units.
Specific to this matchup–both pitchers have been in decent form this year but the most significant component of the matchup is the Cubs’ struggle against left handed pitching. Chicago is 1-9 -8.6 units against southpaws this year and Eric Stults has looked very sharp since moving into the rotation (2.04 ERA YTD). And their YTD performance doesn’t suggest that the Cubs will go on a winning run from here–they’re 4-11 -5.6 units after a win. The Padres are a ‘beatable’ team but that doesn’t necessarily apply to the Cubs–they’re 5-20 -15 units YTD against opponents with losing records. There’s not a scenario that justifies laying the moneyline with the Cubs as favorite. We’d much rather have the underdog Padres.
Bet San Diego Padres (Stults) +135 over Chicago Cubs (Samardzija)
