MLB Betting Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on Jun 25, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Interleague play is over for the year and now we’re back to good old fashioned NL vs. NL matchups. At the top of the National League betting board for Monday is a battle between in-state rivals as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are playing well this year and are currently one game out of first place in the NL Central. The Phillies have been struggling mightily this year and are in last place in the NL East.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
June 25, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

Two teams heading in different direction face off in Philly on Monday as the Phillies host the Pirates. The Phillies had been one of the top National League contenders in recent years but may be past their prime. They’ve been a major disappointment both in their lack of competitive fire in the NL East but to baseball bettors as well. The Phillies are 34-40 and are 9 games out of first place in the division. To put that into perspective, they trail the Miami Marlins by 1 game and the Marlins have been playing absolutely horrific baseball of late. From a betting perspective, the Phillies have been a huge money loser. Philadelphia has lost -15.3 units overall and -15.7 units at home. They’ve been at their worst against good teams–against teams with winning records they’ve lost -13.8 units.

The Pirates have certainly benefited from playing in a weak division but they’re definitely a team on the rise. They’ve also been one of the most profitable teams in MLB baseball this season–they’re 38-33 overall +11.6 units. They have been better at home than on the road, but they’re in the black on the road. They’re actually in the black in most situations this year.

Pitching matchup today features a pair of good, not great, hurlers. Joe Blanton has been solid in terms of his wins and losses though his 5.04 ERA is less than impressive. Jeff Karstens has been very enigmatic in limited action as a starter–his performance has been better than his stats would indicate. In his last start he was pulled after one inning where he allowed 2 ER which suggests a bloated ERA. He’s actually pitched reasonably well though doesn’t go a lot of innings.

This is a situation where the public perception of the Phillies hasn’t really caught up to their current form. They’re priced like a good team but haven’t played like one. For that reason we’ll back the scrappy road team as a decent priced underdog.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Karstens) +125 over Philadelphia Phillies (Blanton)