MLB Betting Picks: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Added on Jul 28, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

NL East action on Saturday as the Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies at Turner Field. The Braves are trying to take a run at the division leading Washington Nationals–they’ll enter play today 4 games back. The Phillies are arguably the biggest disappointment in Major League Baseball. Philadelphia is 14.5 games out of first place and they’re just trying to get out of the basement–they trail 4th place Miami by 1/2 game.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
July 28, 2012 4:10 PM Pacific

Not that it’ll do them much good at this stage of the season, but the Philadelphia Phillies are playing reasonably good baseball right now. They’ve won six of their last ten games and assuming they can string some victories together could salvage a third place finish as long as the Mets and Marlins continue to struggle. That’s likely no consolation to a team that expected to be contending for a divisional title this year. All you need to know about the high expectations and low results that the Phillies have encountered this year can be explained statistically: they’re 45-55 on the season which translates to a whopping -23.2 units lost for their baseball betting backers. This isn’t a good situational spot for Philadelphia–they’re 11-23 -17.9 units against NL East foes and 20-34 -21.8 units against opponents with winning records.

The pitching matchups also favor the Braves–Atlanta has been at their best against right handed pitching going 38-23 +13.1 units. They should have little trouble against journeyman Joe Blanton who weighs in with a 4.70 ERA. The Phillies, meanwhile, have struggled against left handed pitching going 12-20 -12.6 units against southpaws. Mike Minor hasn’t been very impressive this year though he has shown better form in his recent assignments allowing 5 ER for a 2.33 ERA in those games.

Credit to the Phillies for continuing to scrap when their season is essentially a lost cause, but it’s hard to justify the price in this game. The Braves are the better team and face a favorable pitching matchup–and particularly given Minor’s sharp recent form. Perhaps the most significant component of the handicap is the Phillies poor numbers against their divisional rivals–it’s one thing to steal a win against a middle of the pack team but another entirely to beat a divisional foe looking to make up ground in the NL East race. We’ll back the home team at a very attractive price.

Bet Atlanta Braves (Minor) -115 over Philadelphia (Blanton)