MLB Betting Picks: Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

Added on Jul 21, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Sunday baseball features a NL Central battle between the first place Cincinnati Reds and the fourth place Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers were a team that entered the season with very high expectations but have fallen far short of them putting up a very mediocre performance all year. The Reds were expected to be in contention due to their always potent bats but they’ve been getting good pitching as well.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
July 21, 2012 10:10 AM Pacific

While the Milwaukee Brewers continue to tread water after the All Star Break the Cincinnati Reds are playing very good baseball. They’ve split the first two games of this series but despite that Cincinnati has won 8 of their last 10 games. Milwaukee is 5-5 in their last 10 and have been a huge disappointment on the road this year. The Brewers are 18-26 -10.6 units away from home, part of a -13.5 unit loss overall.

The Brewers have also been particularly bad against right handed pitching and they’re facing a good one today in Cincinnati starter Johnny Cueto. Milwaukee is 32-37 -11.2 units against right handed pitching and that doesn’t bode well against Cueto who has a 2.02 ERA at home where the Reds have won 7 of his 8 starts. Surprisingly, the price on the home team is fairly reasonable–likely due to the impressive road ERA of Milwaukee’s Michael Fiers. He’s got a tidy 0.84 ERA in three road starts but that could have a lot to do with the opposition–he was fortunate to catch his opponents when they were playing very poor baseball. Plus even if Fiers does pitch well that’s no guarantee that he’ll get any help from his teammates. His last three starts are a good case in point–he’s got a 0.89 ERA in those games but the Brewers still managed to lose two of three.

Cincinnati has already won 6 of 8 head to head meetings this season and have manhandled the Brewers at home in recent years. Since 2009, the Reds are 16-6 against the Brewers at the Great American Ballpark. We like Fiers as a pitcher but think he’s being overvalued here and we prefer the value price on the Reds. They’re a team fighting for the postseason and playing top notch baseball.

Bet Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) -145 over Milwaukee Brewers (Fiers)