MLB Betting Picks: Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Added on Jul 29, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Monday baseball card is highlighted by an important NL East matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins. Actually, it’s really only important for the Braves since the Marlins are well off the pace but there is at least some motivation for Miami–they’re trying to avoid finishing in last place in their division and currently are 2.5 games ahead of the floundering Phillies for that dubious distinction. The Braves are trying to run down the Washington Nationals atop the NL East and at this stage of the season every win is crucial.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
July 30, 2012 4:10 PM Pacific

Although the Braves should win this game based on the intrinsic superiority of their team and better recent form there are at least a few statistical cases that can be made for a position on the Marlins. Miami will start left hander Mark Buehrle and he’s pitched relatively well this season–at least in terms of his ERA. Buehrle has a 3.31 ERA overall though he has been decidedly better at home. On the road he’s got an ERA of 4.11 and the Marlins have lost 6 of his 9 starts.

Worth noting that the Braves have been at their worst against left handed pitching this year. Atlanta is 17-21 -5.6 units against southpaws this season and Buehrle has a 3-1 career record against the Braves. Atlanta will counter with Tommy Hanson who has one of the strangest statistical ‘lines’ you’ll ever see from a MLB pitcher. At Turner Field he’s got a substandard ERA of 5.19 but the Braves have won 6 of his 9 starts. His recent form is downright inexplicable–his ERA is a brutal 9.42 in his last three starts but the Braves managed to win all three of those games.

The Marlins have won only three of their last 11 games and that may have to do more with scheduling than anything else–two of those wins were against the San Diego Padres. The Braves, meanwhile, have won five straight and 8 of 11 and could be doing what they have done so often in the past couple of decades–putting together a solid late July/August run en route to another divisional title. Since we’re getting a reasonable price on the far superior team we’ll go with Atlanta.

Bet Atlanta Braves (Hanson) -145 over Miami Marlins (Buehrle)