MLB Betting Picks: Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers

Added on Aug 01, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Two struggling teams face off as the Houston Astros take on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Astros’ struggles are well known and they’ve got the worst record in Major League Baseball. The Milwaukee Brewers are a little better off, but not much. This was a team that was expected to contend for the NL Central title but fell far short. Now their ace, Zack Greinke, is a member of the LA Angels and the Brewers are playing out the string.

Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
August 1, 2012 11:10 AM Pacific

Experienced and ‘sharp’ sports bettors approach the discipline far differently than recreational and/or ‘square’ bettors. The ‘square’ thinks in terms of wins and losses–they focus on who will win the game and then worry about the rest. The ‘sharp’ sports bettor thinks in terms of valuation–either against the pointspread or moneyline. They let the value determine their plays. That’s an important concept today as a couple of losing teams face off in Milwaukee. The Brewers are bad, the Astros are worse. Houston has lost 13 of their last 14 games, Milwaukee has lost 9 of 14. The Astros are 28 games out of first place in the NL Central, but the Brewers are 15 games out of first place.

So why are the Brewers a whopping -250 favorite in this game? There’s likely two reasons–first, the Astros are horrible on the road. They have the worst road record in Major League Baseball and it’s not even close. They’ve won only 10 road games this year, six fewer than the second worst road team in the sport (the Chicago Cubs with 16 road wins). They’ve lost -28 units away from home. The other reason is that Brewers’ starter Michael Fiers has been very good since entering the rotation.

But that still begs the question–are the Brewers worth a -250 price, even against a woeful Astros team? Very doubtful. Fiers has been solid to be sure but the Brewers have managed to lose 6 of his 10 starts overall including 4 of 6 at home. Throw in the fact that Milwaukee has accumulated double digit unit losses in most situations this year and it’s a case where you need to hold your nose and take the big price on the underdog. There’s just not a way to justify laying -250 on a team that has lost -16 units this year no matter how bad their opponent.

Bet Houston Astros (Lyles) +225 over Milwaukee Brewers (Fiers)