MLB Betting Picks: Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on May 18, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Wednesday night baseball betting action on ESPN as the Colorado Rockies head to Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies. Colorado has cooled somewhat after a hot start but are still in first place in the NL West though only by 1/2 game over the San Francisco Giants. The Phillies enter this game having lost four straight and are trying to hold off Florida and Atlanta atop the NL East.

Colorado Rockies (De La Rosa) at Philadelphia Phillies (Hamels)
May 18, 2011 4:05 PM Pacific

The Colorado Rockies have turned their conventional form on its head this season–at least as it concerns their home/road tendencies. The Rockies are usually dominant at Coors Field but struggle on the road. This season, however, they’ve got a better record so far on the road (11-8) than at home (11-10). We expect to see the Rockies heat up at home as the season progresses however they may regress somewhat on the road going forward.

There are no such questions about Philadelphia–the Phillies have posted a solid 13-7 record at home and will be looking to end a four game slide as they return to Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia lost 5 of 8 on a recent road swing through St. Louis, Florida and Atlanta and need to string some wins together to stay on top of their division. Rockies’ Jorge De La Rosa has been solid this season (3.70 ERA) as has Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels (3.19 ERA). The Rockies have made money against left handed pitching going 7-4 +1.6 units but the Phillies have brutalized southpaws to the tune of 9-1 +7 units. With all due respect to De La Rosa, we think Hamels may be the qualitatively better pitcher in this matchup and Philadelphia has won 6 of his 8 starts this season. In theory, we’d rather take the road team as a decent priced dog but all statistical signs point to the Phillies getting back on the winning track here. We’re not sold on Colorado’s road performance and we can’t ignore the way that Philadelphia has abused left handers this season. Philadelphia has dominated head to head play going 13-4 since 2008 overall and 7-2 at home. Interestingly, neither Hamels or De La Rosa has a career win over their opponent here–in fact, both pitchers have been hit hard in these games. We’ll play the home team and the Over and if all goes as planned should cash both bets.

Bet Philadelphia Phillies (Hamels) -140 over Colorado Rockies (De La Rosa)
Bet Philadelphia/Colorado Over 7 -120