MLB Betting Picks: Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals

Added on Jun 12, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Interleague play continues on Tuesday with a full slate of AL/NL matchups. One of the most compelling pits the defending World Champion St. Louis Cardinals against the Chicago White Sox. Both teams have been up and down this season–St. Louis started well but has struggled of late while Chicago started slow and has picked up the pace as the weather has gotten warmer.

Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals
June 12, 2012 5:15 PM Pacific

There’s nothing better for a baseball handicapper than to find a sizable underdog that has a good chance of winning the game and that’s exactly what we’ve got here. St. Louis is a -170 favorite in this game and it’s really tough to figure out the source of that perceived disparity. The Cardinals are limping into this game having lost 8 of their last 12 contests and are now just one game over .500 at 31-30. They’re the picture of mediocrity at the moment with a 17-17 record on the road and a 14-13 record at home.

Starting pitcher Adam Wainwright certainly isn’t the reason for the high price on the Cardinals–Wainwright enters this game with a 4.97 ERA overall and a 5.77 ERA at home. The Cards have lost 7 of his 12 starts overall and have split his 6 starts at home. They have won two of his last three assignments though his 5.50 ERA in that stretch is certainly nothing to brag about.

The White Sox, meanwhile, have cooled somewhat since their torrid pace in mid May but are still a very solid ballclub. In particular they’ve excelled on the road where they’re 17-9 +10.4 units. They’re also 26-18 +6.7 units against right handed pitching. Chicago will counter with southpaw Jose Quintana who is making only his third start of the season but he’s been impressive in his limited action. Quintana has a 2.87 ERA in his starting assignments overall and a 2.45 ERA on the road. The White Sox have won 2 of his three starts.

The sum total is a matchup between an overpriced favorite and an undervalued dog–a perfect baseball betting value situation. St. Louis does have a decent record against LHP, but nothing earth shattering–they’re 10-7 +1.7 units against southpaws. Of greater concern has been St. Louis’ substandard performance against teams with winning records–facing teams over .500 the Cards are a woeful 5-14 -11.7 units. They’ve been a huge money loser in this price range going 2-7 -7.8 units as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Value is clearly with the visiting White Sox who are also the better team with the better pitcher in better form.

Bet Chicago White Sox (Quintana) +160 over St. Louis Cardinals (Wainwright)