MLB Betting: Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs

Added on Jun 30, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

A couple of National League bottom feeders go at in Chicago as the hometown Cubs host the Houston Astros. The Cubs are not only in last place in the NL Central but have the dubious distinction of owning the worst record in Major League Baseball at 27-49. The Astros are just ahead of the Cubs in 5th place in the NL Central but have a 4.5 edge with a 32-45 record.

Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs
June 30, 2012 1:05 PM Pacific

Houston is a very enigmatic team–they’ve played decent baseball at home where they’re actually on the right side of the ‘Mendoza Line’ with a 23-19 record. The road is a different story–away from home they’ve got a dismal 9-26 record. That’s the worst road record in Major League Baseball. Typically we look for opportunities to bet against the Chicago Cubs but we chose not to get involved yesterday.

Despite the Astros road struggles we’ll take a shot on them today. The primary reason for that is the Cubs’ brutal performance against left handed pitching–Chicago is 4-17 -13.2 units against southpaws. The Cubs have also been at their worst against teams with losing records going 12-29 -15.8 units against sub .500 opponents. Not surprisingly since they have the worst record in baseball they’re one of the biggest money losers in the sport having dropped -16.95 units.

Chicago’s Matt Garza has pitched reasonably well this year and especially at home where he’s posted a 2.36 ERA. Despite that decent ERA the Cubs have lost 3 of Garza’s 5 home starts and 10 of his 14 assignments overall. J.A. Happ gets the nod for Houston and he’s not been very effective this season and especially on the road. Our thinking in this game is that the Cubs’ struggles against southpaws will make Happ look better than he really is.

The Cubs are a mess and it’s hard to see them getting things together any time soon. Houston, on the other hand, has its issues but they typically play hard. Given the home team’s issues with left handed pitching we’ll gladly take Houston as a road underdog. The Astros have already won 3 of 4 against Chicago and given the Cubs generally dismal form this season we don’t see Houston getting swept. This looks like the best spot for them to pull off a victory.

Bet Houston Astros (Happ) +140 over Chicago Cubs (Garza)