MLB Betting Free Picks: St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals

Added on Aug 26, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting action on Thursday in the National League as the St. Louis Cardinals try to climb back into contention in the NL Central against the cellar dwelling Washington Nationals. Cards are now 3.5 games behind the Cincinnati Reds and have been slumping at the wrong time of the year, losing 7 of 10 while the Reds have won 7 of 10. Washington is just playing out the string, 20 games out of first place and losers of 7 of their last 10.

St. Louis Cardinals (Carpenter) at Washington Nationals (Zimmerman)
August 26, 2010—4:05 PM Pacific

We cashed a huge +310 underdog play on the Houston Astros over the Philadelphia Phillies yesterday, and we’ll come back with another sizable underdog position in this game. Cards in a tailspin at the absolute worst time of the year which has allowed the Cincinnati Reds to pull 3.5 games ahead in the race for the NL Central title. St. Louis has been a bad investment on the road all season long (27-33 -12.7 units) and have failed to take advantage of opportunities against losing teams all season long. YTD they’re 38-32 against sub .500 teams for a -13.6 unit loss, and in the second half of the season they’re 11-12 -9 units. They’ve been treading water in the month of August with a 10-10 record that has cost baseball betting enthusiasts -8.4 units.

Washington not in great form either, losing 7 of their last 10 and just 8-16 -7.2 units in August. YTD there’s a lot to like about them in this spot—they’ve been able to hold their own at home with a 31-30 record for +0.9 units of profit. Against right handers at home, they’ve actually got a winning record at 21-20 with a profit of +3 units.

Admittedly, Chris Carpenter is a tough pitcher to step in against and he’s been a much needed source of consistency for St. Louis this season. Carpenter has a 2.88 ERA YTD and the Cards have won 20 of his 27 starts. His ERA is 3.10 on the road and St. Louis has won 7 of his 11 away assignments. The Nats will counter with Jordan Zimmerman, who is making his first start since July of last year after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

This game doesn’t set up quite as well as our play on Houston yesterday, but it is the sort of situation where you can take a shot by backing the underdog. Cards not in good form and even with Carpenter’s considerable talent they’re overvalued here as they are in most road situations. We’ll take a shot with the home team at a big price in a situation that has been profitable for them this year.

Bet Washington (Zimmerman) +170 over St. Louis (Carpenter)