MLB Betting Free Picks: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

Added on Aug 19, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

More daytime baseball on Thursday and we’re back in the Windy City as the San Diego Padres take on the Cubs at Wrigley Field. San Diego has won the first three games of the four game set and looks to go for the sweep today. With San Francisco struggling on the road at the moment, the Padres are opening up some breathing room in the NL West and now lead the Giants by 6 games.

San Diego Padres (Latos) at Chicago Cubs (Zambrano)
August 19, 2010—11:20 AM Pacific

We cashed an easy winner on San Diego yesterday, and with Mat Latos on the hill for the Padres today there’s no reason to get off of them today. Padres are just cruising at the moment having won 9 of their last 10 games while the Cubs are in freefall having lost 7 of 10. Padres have a favorable schedule over the next week—after this series they’ll head to Milwaukee before returning home to take on Arizona. This means that if they can keep up their winning ways against these sub .500 foes they could have a double digit divisional lead before the end of the month.

We’re not getting as favorable of a price today but we are getting Mat Latos, who has blossomed into a dominant pitcher and the anchor of the Padres staff. San Diego has won 15 of his 22 starts this year and he boasts a 2.32 ERA. On the road, his ERA is 2.40 and the Padres have won 10 of his 14 away assignments. He’s been exceptional in his last three starts, giving up a total of 3 ER and 11 hits though unfortunately he’s not always received the run support he deserves (Padres have lost two of his L3 starts despite this excellent pitching). Cubs will counter with Carlos Zambrano who definitely has the skills to be a top pitcher but just hasn’t put it together this year. He’s got a 5.57 ERA YTD, with a 6.17 ERA in his last three starts.

And as is always the case when Chicago plays, all you need to do is look at the numbers—Cubs have lost -18.3 units at home this year, while the Padres have made their financial backers +17.1 units on the road. San Diego is also 14-4 against teams with losing records in the second half of the season. Price is higher today, but we’re getting a dominant pitcher on a red hot team against a struggling starter on a floundering side. Padres keep cruising with a win here.

Bet San Diego (Latos) -145 over Chicago Cubs (Zambrano)