MLB Betting Free Picks: Philadelphia @ Chicago

Added on Jul 16, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Our baseball betting pick on Thursday’s Cubs/Phillies game went down, but we think that sets up well to come right back on Philadelphia today. The Cubbies did manage to pick up 1/2 game in the NL East standings yesterday while the Phillies lost ground. Chicago is in third place in the NL Central 9 games behind Cincinnati, while Philadelphia is in third place in the NL East 5.5 games back of Atlanta.

Philadelphia Phillies (Blanton) at Chicago Cubs (Lilly)
July 16, 11:20 AM Pacific

The Phillies looked awful in all phases of the game on Thursday, spotting the Cubs a 12-2 lead before scoring four in the top of the ninth to make the final 12-6 verdict a little more respectable. After giving up two runs in the top of the first, Ryan Dempster looked strong the rest of the way and the Cubs offense teed off on veteran lefthander Jamie Moyer. Despite the loss, however, the fundamental dynamics of the situation haven’t changed. The Cubs are still the Cubs, and they’re still–as always–overvalued at home. They improved to 21-23 at Wriggly Field with the victory on Thursday, but that’s still a -12.5 unit net loss for the season. And we’ll bring up the stat that we always mention in Cubs home games simply because its so mind boggling–since 1997, the Cubs have lost -129.4 units at home despite a W/L record 53 games over .500!

It remains to be seen what direction the Phillies take in the second half of the season–they could as easily be out of the playoff hunt by the first of September as they could go on a run and get back into contention. They definitely have the talent, however, and in this matchup at least are a good value as an underdog. Neither pitcher in great form, but Ted Lilly looked awful in his last two starts before the break allowing 14 ER. Joe Blanton has a 2.75 career ERA against Chicago and this looks like a good spot for Philadelphia to atone for their shabby performance yesterday.

Bet Philadelphia (Blanton) +120 over Chicago Cubs (Lilly)