MLB Betting Free Picks: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

Added on Aug 29, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting action on Monday in the National League as the Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets desperately needing a win. Atlanta had more trouble than they had anticipated against Florida over the weekend and now finds Philadelphia closer in their rear view mirror than they’ve been in quite some time. The Mets are just playing out the string and have hovered right around the .500 mark for much of the second half of the season.

New York Mets (Misch) at Atlanta Braves (Jurrjens)
August 30, 2010—4:10 PM Pacific

The Braves are glad to see the Florida Marlins leave town, but they should have an easier time of it against the New York Mets. Mets have given a reasonable account of themselves in head to head play this season (6-5 +2.1 units) but overall this season they’ve been just awful away from CitiField (which I’ll forever call Shea Stadium). Mets just 26-40 -12.6 units on the road this year, and their offense has been dismal of late (averaging just 3.5 units per game in their last 13 heading into Sunday’s contest at home against Houston). Against right handers on the road, Mets are 18-30 -10.95 units.

We’d much rather use the Braves against right handed pitching, but their overall performance at home has been exceptional this year. Atlanta is 46-20 +15.5 units at Turner Field this year. Jair Jurrjens gets the start for the Braves today and he’s been money in the bank at home, with Atlanta winning all 7 of his starts (7-0 +7 units). Jurrjens has allowed a single earned run in his last four home starts, and with the Mets’ offense not generating much scoring could add to that streak here.

The Mets will counter with lefty Pat Misch who’ll be making his fourth start of the season. Misch has pitched reasonably well (3.50 ERA) but New York has lost all three of his outings due to poor run support (Mets averaging 2.0 runs in his assignments). Atlanta hasn’t been great against lefthanders this year but given the urgency of getting a victory here combined with Jurrjens strong form and the disparate home/away profiles of the teams involved we look for the Braves to take care of business.

Bet Atlanta (Jurrjens) -185 over New York Mets (Misch)