MLB Betting Free Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Added on Aug 27, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting action on Friday in the National League as the Los Angeles Dodgers head to Denver for a weekend series against the Colorado Rockies. Both are decent teams with records above .500, but with San Diego on cruise control they’re well off the pace in the National League West. Colorado is 10 games out of first place, with the Dodgers 11 games back.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw) at Colorado Rockies (Jimenez)
August 27, 2010—6:10 PM Pacific

In a different set of circumstances, we might take the Dodgers in this matchup. Clayton Kershaw is one of our favorite young pitchers and L.A. has been playing reasonably well of late winning three straight and 6 of their last 10. The Rockies are also in good form, winning four straight and six of ten. Neither team has a realistic shot at the NL West title at this point, even though 2^nd place San Francisco has faltered of late. The Giants have lost 6 of 10 and is currently 6 games out of first. The problem for the rest of the division is that the San Diego Padres keep winning games and have shown no signs of faltering.

Ubaldo Jimenez hasn’t been as unhittably dominant as he was earlier in the season, but he’s been consistent. He checks in with a 2.66 ERA overall and a 3.09 ERA at home. He’s lost two of his last three starts—both on the road—due primarily to poor run support. He’s got a 3.00 ERA in his last three outings and even in his two losses allowed a total of 4 earned runs. The problem was that Colorado scored only a single run total in those two games, and that makes it impossible to win even with solid starting pitching.

Ultimately, this game boils down to a matchup between a substandard road team and a strong home team. The Dodgers have lost money on the road this year (28-45 -7.6 units) and are only 4-11 as a road underdog in this price range (+125 to +150). The Rockies, on the other hand, are 42-21 at Coors Field for a +10.7 unit profit. They’ve been very good against teams with winning records this year, posting a 39-28 +10.4 unit profit. Colorado is 10-1 +7.8 units in Jimenez’s home starts, and we’ll back them at a reasonable price to take care of business here.

Bet Colorado (Jimenez) -145 over Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw)