MLB Betting Free Picks: Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on Aug 25, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting action on Wednesday in the National League as the Houston Astros look to sweep the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have missed a great opportunity to gain ground on the NL East leading Atlanta Braves—Atlanta has lost two straight at Colorado, but Philadelphia has dropped a pair to the lowly Astros. Houston has been out of contention pretty much since the season began, but they’ve continued to play hard.

Houston Astros (Happ) at Philadelphia Phillies (Halladay)
August 25, 2010—4:05 PM Pacific

Want to take a shot on a huge underdog that has more going for it than the hope of dumb blind luck? Today’s game between the Phillies and Astros may be right up your alley. Houston has been playing decent baseball since the midway point of the season and has a realistic shot at finishing third in the NL Central—something that was unthinkable when they endured a franchise worst losing streak to start this season. Astros are now 12-10 +6.5 units in the month of August and are 8-9 against teams with winning records in the second half of the season, good for 3 units of profit.

The Phillies have been exceptional at home this year with a 40-23 record, but after last night’s loss as a -280 favorite that translates to a mere 4 units of profit. They’ve lost money against left handed pitching this year (19-16 -4.1 units) and have an even bigger loss against southpaws at home—9-9 -7.1 units. Their offensive numbers reflect that this isn’t a coincidence—Phillies average more than 5 runs per game at home against right handers but less than 4 per game against lefthanders.

We’ll have to take a shot against Roy Halladay who has been his usually dominant self this season. Halladay has a 2.16 ERA overall and a 1.95 ERA at home. The Phillies have won 17 of 26 starts overall and 10 of 14 at home, but that performance has made bettors only +0.4 units overall and just 1.4 units at home. He’s looked very sharp in his last two outings (Washington, at New York Mets) but he can be hit—the Mets managed 9 hits and 5 earned runs against him on August 8, though this was a rare case when the Phillies gave him good run support and got him the win (they’ve scored a total of 5 runs in his past two starts).

J.A. Happ doesn’t have great numbers, though he’s improved over the course of the season. He’s allowed a total of 6 earned runs in his last three starts (2.95 ERA) but we’re hoping that Philadelphia’s struggles against left handed pitchers will make him look even better. This wouldn’t be the first time that Philadelphia had struggled to put up runs against a pitcher with poor numbers in one of Halladay’s starts—in his last outing they made Jason Marquis and his 11.39 ERA look like Bob Gibson and were fortunate to get a 1-0 win.

Ultimately, we’ve got a situation where Philadelphia has lost money this year and a price that’s big enough to make taking a shot against Halladay worthwhile.

Bet Houston (Happ) +310 over Philadelphia (Halladay)