MLB Betting Free Picks: Cincinnati @ Chicago

Added on Jul 04, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Plenty of sports betting action for the 4th of July, and we’ll look at a baseball betting opportunity in the National League as the Chicago Cubs host the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds and Cubs have split the first two games of the series but Cincinnati is still holding on to first place in the NL Central by 1.5 games over St. Louis. The Cubs are in 4th place 10.5 games back.

Cincinnati Reds (Leake) +110 over Chicago Cubs (Lilly)
July 4, 11:20 AM Pacific

One of our favorite baseball handicapping concepts is simply going against the Chicago Cubs at home whenever we get the opportunity to take a decent opponent at an underdog price. That’s exactly what we’ve got today as the 1st place Reds go for the series victory in this afternoon game at Wrigley Field. Betting the Cubs at home is a worse investment than Enron–Chicago is an acceptable 20-22 at home this season but that’s translated to a -12.2 unit loss for their backers. If you’d bet the Cubs in every home game since 1997, you’d have likely been out of action a long time ago as Chicago has lost an incredible -129.2 units in that stretch despite a W/L record fifty games over .500. No matter how you slice it, the Cubs are an overvalued property at home.

We’re even getting a favorable pitching matchup–Ted Lilly has looked sharp in his last two starts allowing only a single earned run in each. The problem is that they were against a couple of weak hitting teams in Pittsburgh and Seattle, and now he’s facing a very good offense with a winning record against southpaws. Mike Leake has been sensational in his five road starts this year with a 1.64 ERA. We’re getting the better team in a favorable pitching matchup as an underdog, and that’s a perfect example of value handicapping.

Bet Cincinnati Reds (Leake) +110 over Chicago Cubs (Lilly)