MLB Betting Free Picks: Cincinnati @ Chicago

Added on Jul 02, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Sportsbooks will be offering a daytime baseball betting opportunity on Friday as the Cincinnati Reds take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Reds have opened up a 1.5 game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, while the Cubs are well off the pace 10.5 games out of first. This game will go at 11:20 AM Pacific Time.

Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo) at Chicago Cubs (Dempster)
July 2, 11:20 AM Pacific

The Chicago Cubs are perpetually overvalued at home. They’re 19-21 -11.4 units at Wrigley Field this season, and since 1997 have lost a whopping -128.4 units at home. That fact alone would justify a play on the Reds here, but Cincinnati is also in much better recent form. They won the first game of this series on Thursday, and have won 8 of their last 10. Chicago, meanwhile, has lost 7 of their last 10. The Reds have also won 5 of the 7 head to head matchups so far this season.

Ryan Dempster gets the start for Chicago and he’s been pitching relatively well of late. His ERA for the year is 3.58, but he’s got a 2.91 ERA in his last three starts. The Cubs have lost 10 of his 16 starts this year. Bronson Arroyo has a 4.49 ERA on the season, but Cincinnati has won 10 of his 16 starts including 6 of 8 on the road. The biggest disparity between these two teams is on offense–Cincinnati leads the National League with a .276 team batting average while Chicago is 12th with a .254 average. The Reds also average nearly a full run per game more than Chicago (4.9 to 4.0). We’ll take the better team at a small underdog price and look to play on Cincinnati throughout the weekend if the favorable prices hold up.

Bet Cincinnati (Arroyo) +120 over Chicago (Dempster)