MLB Betting: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Added on Aug 22, 2012 by Jack Thurman in
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Washington took another game from the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night behind an impressive performance from their ace Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg struck out 10 as he won his 15th game of the year. Braves lefty Paul Maholm took the loss though he didn’t pitch badly. The Nationals are cruising having won 9 of their last 12 while the the Braves have been treading water of late winning just 6 of 12.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
August 22, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific
We’ll change our position in today’s game and hope that we’re not ‘zigging when we should have zagged’. We’ve been on Atlanta throughout this series and although they’ve lost twice that’s not the reason we’re backing the Nationals today. Sure, the Nationals are cruising and have opened up a 7 game lead over Atlanta but that’s not why we’re backing them in this spot and getting off of the Braves. It’s purely situational–our original premise that these teams are evenly matched is still valid (though they’re starting to look *less* evenly matched as the Nationals pull away atop the NL East) but today we’re getting a great price on the home team as the face the Braves in one of their few bad situational matchups.
Yesterday we talked about how Atlanta has brutalized right handed pitching (+17.5 units YTD). Against left handed pitching they’ve done just the opposite–the Braves are 21-25 -7.3 units against southpaws and in recent weeks have made some very ordinary lefties like San Diego’s Eric Stults look like Sandy Koufax. Sandy Koufax won’t be on the hill for Washington but they are starting a very solid lefthander in Ross Detwiler. Detwiler has been spectacular at home this year, posting a 2.88 ERA and Washington has won 8 of his 10 starts. Atlanta will counter with the surprising Kris Medlen–Medlen’s resurgance and exceptional performance after joining the starting rotation has been one of the best stories of the year. In four starts he’s got a miniscule 1.05 ERA and the Braves won all four of those games. Less impressive, however, is the quality of the teams he’s beaten in such dominant fashion–San Diego, the NY Mets, Houston and Miami. Big step up in class here and that combined with Atlanta’s struggles against lefthanders will have us on the home team.
Bet Washington Nationals (Detwiler) +100 over Atlanta Braves (Medlin)
