MLB Betting: Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates

Added on Aug 08, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

A pair of National League teams in the hunt for the top spot in their respective divisions face off on Wednesday evening as the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Pirates are currently 3.5 games behind the NL Central leading Cincinnati Reds while the Diamondbacks are 2.5 games behind second place Los Angeles and 4 games back of first place San Francisco in the NL West.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
August 8, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

These teams have split the first two games of this series and need every win they can get to keep pace in the divisional title hunt. Ian Kennedy is a consistently solid pitcher that we usually like to ‘play on’ but it’s hard to understand why he’s a -125 road favorite here. The Diamondbacks haven’t been an exceptionally good team away from home posting a record of 26-30 (-1.9 units). They’ve lost 7 of Kennedy’s 12 road starts this season though the righthander does have a decent 3.62 ERA in those games.

The Pirates, on the other hand, have been very strong at home with a record of 34-17 +15.9 units–part of a +21.6 unit profit overall this season. They’ve also cleaned up against right handed pitching posting a record of 43-35 +13.8 units. Kevin Correia may be something of a ‘journeyman’ but he’s been effective at home with a 3.62 ERA (identical to Kennedy’s road ERA) and the Bucs have won 6 of his 9 assignments at PNC Park. Pittsburgh has the advantage in the season series this year winning 3 of 5 head to head and have manhandled the D-Backs at home in recent years. Since 2009 the Pirates are 6-2 +4.5 units at home against Arizona.

So that brings us back to the price–there’s been a vibe among mainstream fans and baseball betting enthusiasts alike that the Pirates are something of a fluke and are due for a ‘correction’. That’s what happened last season when Pittsburgh played well for the first half of the year before crashing to earth after the All Star Break. But that was then, this is now and there’s been no signs that it’ll be ‘deja vu all over again’. The Pirates have been chasing the red hot Cincinnati Reds–baseball’s best team over the past month or so–and are still within striking distance. Even with the loss to Arizona on Tuesday Pittsburgh has a record of 20-12 since the first of July. We’re all for staying ahead of the market, but to undervalue a team based on what happened last year–and might happen this year–is silly.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Correia) +115 over Arizona Diamondbacks (Kennedy)