MLB Baseball Totals Betting: The Best Teams For Over/Under Plays
Added on Aug 26, 2010 by Jack Thurman in
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A couple of weeks ago we took a look at which Major League Baseball teams had made the most—and lost the most—money for the sports betting public. In this article we’ll look at baseball totals betting, and examine which teams have played the most games ‘over’ and ‘under’ the total this year. Obviously, you shouldn’t bet blindly based on these trends—baseball more than any other sport is a game of situational matchups. This information can give you a good starting point for your own totals handicapping since teams that go ‘over’ do so for a reason and vice versa. Note that all statistics and records are through the games of August 25, 2010.
OVER TEAMS:
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: The Arizona Diamondbacks have the worst pitching staff in baseball, at least from a statistical standpoint. Their team ERA is 5.07, although the Pittsburgh Pirates are nipping at their heels with a 5.04 ERA. Their bullpen ERA is even worse at 5.97. Not surprisingly, the Diamondbacks have played more games ‘Over’ the total than any team in baseball. Arizona has 75 OV, 49 UN and 3 push for the season, meaning they’ve gone ‘Over’ in 60.5% of their games. Their rotation isn’t going to get any better down the stretch, so they’ll probably keep going ‘Over’ the total the rest of the way. One pitcher to avoid if you’re looking to play the D-backs ‘Over’ is 23 year old Daniel Hudson, who could be a superstar of the future. The rest of the Arizona rotation is fair game.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS: The Brew Crew comes in at #2 on the ‘Over’ hit parade with 67 OV, 52 UN and 7 push for 56.3% of their games going ‘Over’. Milwaukee’s pitching isn’t great—they rank #14 in the National League ahead of only Arizona and Pittsburgh with a 4.91 ERA. They do have the #3 team batting average in the National League at .264. This combination of substandard pitching and solid hitting should keep the Brewers going ‘Over’ the total for the rest of the year.
CINCINNATI REDS: Not surprising that the most potent offense in the National League plays a lot of games ‘Over’ the total. Cincy has gone OV in 65, UN in 55 and pushed 9 for a 53.4% OV percentage. The Reds pitching is good though not great, ranking 10th in the NL with a 4.15 ERA. The fact that they average nearly 5 runs per game on offense (4.99 to be exact) gives them a good luck at a lot of ‘Overs’.
UNDER TEAMS:
OAKLAND A’S: The entire lineup of the Oakland A’s is built around the premise that it’s just as effective (and cheaper) to keep the other team from scoring runs as it is to score runs yourself. While that may or may not be true (the A’s record of 63-62 isn’t a good validation or refutation of this theory) it has produced more ‘Unders’ than any team in baseball. Oakland has played 49 OV, 68 UN and 8 push for a 58.1% to the ‘Under’. Oakland’s not going to start hitting, nor will they change their approach to the game so they’ll be a good ‘Under’ play for the rest of the year.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES: Baltimore has been one of the worst teams in baseball all year long, and they’re the #2 ‘Under’ team in the sort. The O’s have gone OV in 52 games, UN in 69 games and pushed 6 for a 57% UN record. O’s are next to last in the AL in runs scored and are next to last in team ERA. Buck Showalter has them playing more competitive baseball down the stretch, and that may translate into more ‘Under’ games.
SEATTLE MARINERS: Another bad team, the Seattle Mariners are just behind Baltimore for number of ‘Under’ verdicts this season. M’s have gone OV in 51, UN in 67 and pushed 9 for 56.8% of their games going ‘Under’ the total. Seattle has serviceable pitching, ranking #5 in the AL for team ERA with a 3.92 mark. Unfortunately, they’ve scored fewer runs, average fewer runs per game (3.29) and have a lower team batting average (.236) than any team in baseball.
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