MLB Baseball Betting Preview: Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates

Added on Sep 08, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

More baseball betting in the National League on Wednesday as the Atlanta Braves conclude a three game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates. As we’ve said all along, this was an important set for the Braves but it hasn’t gone their way with losses in the first two games. As a result, Philadelphia now has a 1/2 game lead in the NL East. Pittsburgh is still one of the worst teams in baseball, but they’ve given the Braves some trouble this year.

Atlanta Braves (Lowe) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Duke)
September 8, 2010–4:05 PM Pacific

We’ve already won twice using the Pittsburgh Pirates in this series (here and here) so why not go to the well one more time? Worst case scenario, we’re still up +3 units for this series. Pirates aren’t commanding the huge price in today’s game, but with lefthander Zach Duke on the mound its statistically a more favorable matchup for Pittsburgh.

The ‘elephant in the room’ for Atlanta is their abysmal performance away from Turner Field. Atlanta has the best home record in baseball at 49-19, but away from home they’re just 30-41 -16 units. The Pirates may have the worst record in baseball, but they have been competitive at home this year and have even turned a profit from a betting standpoint (32-38 +6.9 units). We’ve talked on a number of occasions this season about the Braves’ poor performance against left handed pitching–Atlanta has lost money against southpaws this year (24-26 -10.2 units). On the road against lefthanders, the Braves are 8-16 -11.3 units.

The Pirates Zach Duke gets the start here, and while his YTD numbers aren’t overly compelling the Braves are having trouble generating offense on the road at this point. They made a promising but inexperienced pitcher in James McDonald look like Greg Maddux in his prime last night, and they struggled with young lefthander Brian Burres in the first game of this series. Derek Lowe is nothing if not experienced, but his YTD ERA isn’t particularly good (4.53) and the Braves have lost 9 of his 13 road starts. He’s been hit hard in his recent starts–12 ER in his last 3 games for a 6.75 ERA in that stretch.

The Braves need a win and although they’re facing a weak team there’s a lot in this matchup working against them. We saw that in the previous two games of the series, and we cashed big prices playing against Atlanta. Same concepts at play here, and we’ll back the Bucs again. If Pittsburgh wins, we’re 3-0 +5.3 units for the series. If they lose, we’re 2-1 with nearly three units of profit and that’s a downside potential we’ll gladly accept.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Duke) +140 over Atlanta Braves (Lowe)