MLB Baseball Betting Picks: Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays
Added on Jun 11, 2012 by Jack Thurman in
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Pitching phenom Steven Strasburg may get all the publicity, but the Washington Nationals have become a very good team. They currently lead the NL East by 2 games over a surging Atlanta Braves team but have a chance to pick up some ground in this early week Interleague Series against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Braves have a tough test at home against the New York Yankees.
Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays
June 11, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific
The Nats have been excellent at home (18-10) but have improved on the road as well–they currently hold a 17-13 record away from home good for +4.8 units of profit. Strasburg deserves all of the accolades he gets–as does rookie sensation Bryce Harper–but Washington’s rotation is solid throughout. Edwin Jackson gets the start today and although he’s sort of ‘lost in the shuffle’ at least as it comes to public perception there’s nothing second rate about his numbers–Jackson has a 3.11 ERA overall and a 2.89 road ERA. For some reason–and despite these impressive numbers–the Nationals have lost all six of Jackson’s road starts this season.
Toronto’s Brandon Morrow has also been very good–he’s got a 2.90 ERA overall but a 3.89 mark at home. Toronto is 16-12 at the Rogers Centre but that has produced a net profit of just +1.1 units. Washington has been impressive in Interleague play so far this season and is coming off a sweep of the Boston Red Sox to improve to 4-2 against the American League. The Blue Jays are treading water against the National League so far this season but since 2009 Toronto is 18-24 -7 units in Interleague action.
Washington is still somewhat ‘under the radar’ relative to their betting value. They are now a legit divisional contender and the emergence of Bryce Harper has added some much needed punch to their offense. The Blue Jays are in a very tough spot psychologically–being ‘good’ isn’t ‘good enough’ in the brutal AL East. There’s only 1 team in the AL East with a record below .500 and despite being 2 games over .500 the Blue Jays are 4 games out of first place. The Yankees and Tampa Bay are both in excellent form now so if Toronto doesn’t pick up their pace they’ll be left far behind the division leaders.
The Nationals have made a nice profit against right handed pitching this year (27-18 +6.5 units) and the Blue Jays are coming off a weekend series against Washington’s divisional rival the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta took 2 of 3 from Toronto and we expect Washington to do the same.
Bet Washington Nationals (Jackson) +145 over Toronto Blue Jays (Morrow)
